Our man on the ground, reporting live
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Started by madmechanic - Jan. 5, 2023, 8:49 a.m.

Live from the bedroom of an average suburban house near Sacramento, California.

"Reporting to you live from my bed because I can't sleep. Last major wind gusts past at around 2:50 AM PST. Just after 3 AM, I was treated to the tell tale signs of lightning in the area as evidenced by strobing light flashes at random intervals. Curiously, there were no thunder claps (I tried counting the time between light flashes and thunder to see if the storm was coming or going). I suspect that this was predominantly a cloud to cloud lightning event. This lasted for about 30 minutes before no more flashes were seen. It is now 5:40 AM and all has been quiet since the lightning cell moved on. No gusts of wind, no sound of falling rain outside my window.

That said, weather radar is predicting that a fresh storm cell will be arriving by about 10:30 AM.

For now, I'm going to try and get some sleep.

Back to you in the studio Mike."

By metmike - Jan. 5, 2023, 12:07 p.m.
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Please scroll down for much more:

Thanks for your, live on the scene report from the eye of the not so deadly storm, making headline news and being blown into an historic disaster from a fake planet destroying climate crisis,  madmechanic!

We're seeing a weather pattern regime change big time right now. As previously shown here:


This weather pattern is suggesting to us that the current La Nina is rapidly coming to an end.

The atmosphere is taking on the El Nino signature big time! 

Regardless of what the models or Pacific ocean temp profiles indicate, the atmosphere is acting just like it does when we have El Nino in the Pacific.

I've not seen this configuration for several Winters. 

Look at that jet stream roaring across the Pacific. The yellow is a 200+ knot jet streak which is 240+ MPH!

You rarely see that and it's usually during El Nino's in the Pacific. It's aimed at the US, which will flood the entire US with mild, oceanic air and bombard the entire West Coast with heavy precip all the way to S.California which is typical of El Nino NOT La Nina.

To me, this signals the demise of the long lived La Nina!!

This should also bring a chance for drought relief in Argentina!

Ding, Dong the La Nina is (almost)dead, which La Nina, the 3 year old La Nina!

This will likely also mark the end of the multi year pause in the mostly beneficial global warming. 

2022 was the 7th warmest year. 


I predict that 2023 will be warmer with high confidence and there will likely be less drought in the US because of it. 


This warming in the Pacific Ocean temps will feature heat belching out and a resumption of the slight global warming pattern that had paused during the cooling La Nina.

This means drought relief in the US for 2023 and likely  huge benefits in food supplies and benefits to life that El Nino's and slight global warming causes.

We can also expect that the massive greening of the planet from beneficial increase in  CO2 to continue:


Death by Greening:



Despite this, out there in your neck of the woods, we can expect a continued shortage of energy and power from human induced ignorance with California leading the way into  what is the REAL HUMAN CAUSED CRISIS.  

Big failure during peak energy loads in California


Fake inflation reduction act. Wind, the energy source from environmental hell.


California tells electric car owners NOT to charge vehicles. Energy crisis in California because of unreliable, fake green/anti environmental energy!September 2022 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88534/ 


We note that you've also been on top of this for some time!

Our condolences to you and other residents  of California that will have to suffer from the human induced energy crisis and really dumb, anti energy, anti authentic science, anti critical thinking, anti biology, anti climate/weather thinking based on crony capitalism, political agenda, greed and corruption in all those fields by gate keepers that have hijacked climate science and even rewritten climate history (to take out the Medieival Warm Period) the last time it was as warm as this, 1,000 years ago.

NEW: Electric cars are not the solution:  Our mechanical engineer chimes in with great points.  November 2022 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/90429/

Past warming like this:


By metmike - Jan. 6, 2023, 8:49 p.m.
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This is what a dying La Nina in January looks like in the US:

Extended weather.


6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability



By metmike - Jan. 6, 2023, 8:52 p.m.
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Deadly bomb cyclone closes its final chapter after ravaging California with life-threatening flooding for days      


Let's find out if this rain/snow was really all so bad.

By madmechanic - Jan. 6, 2023, 9:13 p.m.
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I suspect my next report will be this weekend when we are expecting the next wave of storms from this 'bomb cyclone'.

By metmike - Jan. 6, 2023, 9:28 p.m.
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Thanks madmechanical engineer!

We look forward to your next report and others very much!


All this deadly rain/snow is obliterating drought in many places!

Before the fake climate crisis and false narratives took control, that used to be a good thing.

Soil moisture has been restored to extremely favorable in most of California right now.

The water supply for agriculture, drinking and other uses has been given a massive boost with tremendous benefits to humans, plants/the biosphere and all of life in California.



Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile

Almost no major droughts, that featured huge water deficits  were  eliminated with nice steady rains that gradually restored soil moisture over the course of several months........especially along the West Coast.

The precip pattern out there, since humans have existed is usually feast or famine.

Either too much or too little. 

In recent years, because of the La Nina (cold water anomalies in the tropical Pacific) that has suppressed the Winter jet stream that brings the vast majority of precip, it's been famine.

When the ocean switches to the opposite condition, an El Nino (warm water anomalies in the same place) the opposite happens.

It causes a strengthening atmospheric river/jet stream that bombards the West Coast with excessive rains., like we've been getting recently.

By metmike - Jan. 6, 2023, 9:47 p.m.
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Let's look back at the last several years to see what the precip situation was like in California:

1. End of 2022.........too dry because of the very long lived La Nina.......California needed precip!

2. End of 2021...........too dry because of the La Nina......California needed precip!

3.  End of 2020......too dry..........California needed precip!

4. End of 2019. California was in pretty good shape with just above average precip.

5. End of 2018. California too dry

6. End of 2017. California close to average. In pretty good shape.

By metmike - Jan. 6, 2023, 10:03 p.m.
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Clearly, the last 3 years were dry in California, mostly related to the La Nina.

This is the jet steam pattern that we saw during most of that time. This is a natural, cyclical cycle. La Nina's cause much of the major droughts in the Western and Southern US but sometimes farther north. No La Nina is exactly the same.


El Nino's cause the opposite effect on the jet stream and weather patterns downstream.  This is the source of the atmospheric rivers loaded with copious moisture and energy  for bomb cyclones.

You may say......."but we don't have an El Nino yet, Mike, so this weather can't be caused from an El Nino!"

The reality is that many months before NOAA and others tell us that we have an official El Nino, based on their formal definition, that includes a 3 month average of a warmer  temperature profile in their key locations of the tropical Pacific and/or pressure patterns in the Pacific.....the atmosphere will take on the El Nino signature. 

The atmosphere is taking on an El Nino signature with gusto right now.

Instead of a blocking La Nina ridge along the West Coast, we have a deep trough and tremendous El Nino type atmospheric river roaring across the Pacific and slamming into the West Coast. 



By metmike - Jan. 6, 2023, 10:16 p.m.
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So we've had alot of precip falling too fast and greatly reduced much of the deficits in many places.

In the last 90 days, this has equated to a few small pockets in Central California getting double the average precip..........in places that REALLY REALLY needed it. 

There are no stories telling it to us that way because most weather and climate, ever since climate science was hijacked is fraudulently twisted to be caused by humans burning fossil fuels. 

Just like this Summer's new alarmist term...... so called 1 in 1,000 year rain events were, in many cases events that had happened several times in the last 100 years.

This can't be repeated enough:


We should keep in mind, the goldenrule of climate extremes from professor cliff mass.



The GoldenRule

 Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:

The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.

Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.       

By madmechanic - Jan. 8, 2023, 3:48 a.m.
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"Reporting to you live from my bed once again! Strong winds started around 11:20 PM PST. Experienced an internet outage around 11:40 PM with service restored by 12:10 AM.

Power went out around 12:30 AM. Strong winds continue but there seems to be little rain at the moment.

Winds are reported to be about 15 mph blowing in a predominantly northern direction (slightly west of true north). Gusts of up to about 46 mph have been reported.

Have seen a few flashes of bright light through my bedroom window. Possibly cloud to cloud lightning discharges (no thunder was observed), but it is also possible that nearby above ground high voltage transmission lines are contacting each other and discharging. I hope this is not the case though.

Weather radar shows a moderate severity rain cell inbound, estimated to hit around 1:30 AM.

That's all I have for the time being.

Back to you in the studio Mike."

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2023, 12:51 p.m.
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Thanks MM!

I hope you continue to survive in order to keep us posted. 


Here's some weather maps for that area:


Updated every few minutes below:


Excessive rain threat.


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook


Up to 10 inches of liquid equivalent moisture in the usual areas that have enhanced orthographic lifting. That's alot of precip!  In a drought prone area with a 3 year drought being obliterated by this pattern, it also mean the soil moisture profile is being recharged, water storage/reservoirs are filling up. Lakes and Rivers filling up from very low levels.

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.


Day 1 below:



Day 2 below:



Day 3 below:



Days 4-5 below:



 Days 6-7 below:



7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126



By metmike - Jan. 8, 2023, 12:55 p.m.
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Ironically, this was the view 1 month ago today when NORMAL/AVERAGE rain fell and was interpreted as NOT ENOUGH!

Has Any Of This Wonderful Rain And Snow Helped Alleviate California’s Drought Conditions?    

By     Jacob Margolis                                                                                                                                                                            

        Published Dec 8, 2022 3:02 PM    


A map of California show intense red to indicate extreme drought in the center of the state

Even though California's seen a fair bit of precipitation, nearly the entire state is still experiencing drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

(U.S. Drought Monitor                                      




This weekend, Southern California could see yet another storm bring anywhere from one to five inches of rain, and given how dry California’s been, it's felt downright decadent to have multiple early season storms dropping loads of rain and snow. But the drought persists and there’s no guarantee the wet weather will continue.

Just a normal amount of rain: While Los Angeles has seen slightly above average precipitation over the past two months, California as a whole is still lagging behind its historic average, and is still experiencing widespread drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

What about our reservoirs? Reservoir levels across California are still quite low, though they’ll rise as the snowpack melts. A good bit of snow has fallen in the Sierra Nevada, which is important because that’s the source of a significant portion of the state's water. That said, we still need lots more snow to fall if we’re going to hit our historic rainy season average by April 1.


The bottom line: “We have this cumulative deficit problem that we don’t really think about in California, because we think if it’s raining, the drought is over. It’s not!” said Jeffrey Mount of the Public Policy Institute of California. This is a good start to the rainy season, but the coming months and years matter.


metmike: There will almost never be the PERFECT amount of rain in California. A month ago and the previous 3 years it wasn't enough because of the natural La Nina(blamed on climate change) Now, the La Nina is dying fast, naturally and it's too much rain(blamed on climate change). Weather like this from natural variations in ENSO/Pacific Ocean temperature configurations has always dominated and will always dominate.

By madmechanic - Jan. 8, 2023, 2:46 p.m.
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The weather situation in California right now certainly comes across in the news as a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" setup. Damned if we don't get enough rain, but damned if we do get enough (or in this case a lot in a short period of time).

Now, it may sound like I don't understand the logistics of too much water overwhelming existing water infrastructure, I do get that; but, at the end of the day, California is finally getting a lot of much needed water, and more importantly, snow pack.

Here is another nugget for thought. I live about 15 minutes away from Folsom Lake, home of Folsom Hydroelectric dam. Folsom dam is a significant producer of hydroelectric power in this area when the lake level is high enough to support generation.

About 2 weeks ago, in the midst of the first wave of rain, I checked the level of Folsom lake and it was reported to be, at that time, approximately 35 ft below fill level. With all the rain we have been getting, the operators of the dam have been releasing incredible amounts of water from the lake to avoid an overfill/overflow situation, which would be bad.

Moments ago I checked the reported lake level again and it was reported to be...56 ft. below fill level.

So wait...they are releasing so much water that the lake level is DROPPING compared to where it was 2 weeks ago. I know we have more rain coming but what the actual heck folks!

Folsom lake is just one of many lakes/reservoirs in California and many of them are experiencing good levels of fill, but Folsom lake in particular presents a frustrating set of challenges and in my eyes underlines the lack of good, updated water infrastructure in California.

Folsom lake is one part of the electricity puzzle in this state, but the lake itself is actually rather shallow, it's fill level is just shy of 250 ft. That's it. So the operators have to keep a very close eye on the lake level to avoid overflow situations. But then the lake has been shown as prone to running dry over the last decade with fluctuations in annual rainfall.

The question has been asked "why don't we dredge the lake?" Well, there are a couple of frustrating reasons why we can't viably do that. For one, there is NO dredging infrastructure currently present at the lake. No dredge bucket line, no dredging vessels. New dredging infrastructure would have to be brought in and/or built first. Then the next question is "where are you going to put the material that is dredged out of the lake?" We don't have any immediate open land adjacent to the lake where dredge material can be dumped, the land around the lake is too developed with housing, and the rest is preserved nature with walking/bike trails (which is nice, so I'm not complaining about that). So the only other option is a costly operation to truck the dredging material somewhere else.

Folsom lake is filled via 2 rivers, and due to natural erosion of river beds over time, there is going to be dirt/sand/silt flowing into the lake, making the lake that much shallower over time, so this problem is going to have to be addressed at some point.

By metmike - Jan. 8, 2023, 3:36 p.m.
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"The weather situation in California right now certainly comes across in the news as a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" setup. Damned if we don't get enough rain, but damned if we do get enough (or in this case a lot in a short period of time)."

Time for a station break to listen to some awesome music!

The Alan Parsons Project - Damned If I Do (audio) - YouTube

Time keeps flowing like an atmospheric  river


Mammagamma Alan Parson Project


The Alan Parsons Project - Eye in the Sky (Audio)


Alan Parsons Project - "Old and Wise" - Lyrics on screen


The Alan Parsons Project - Some Other time (with lyrics)


The Alan Parsons Project - Can't Take It With You

I Robot


Sugar Storm



Music to relax to and forget about the nonsense.


      The Hidden Valley: Beautiful Relaxing Music for Stress Relief, Sleep & Meditation    

Beautiful Relaxing Music for Stress Relief • Meditation Music ...

Relaxing Sleep Music • Deep Sleeping Music, Relaxing Music, Stress Relief, Meditation Music (Flying)


12 Hours of Relaxing Music - Piano Music for Stress Relief, Sleep Music, Meditation Music (Riley)



By metmike - Jan. 9, 2023, 10:54 p.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 9, 2023, 11:28 p.m.
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There certainly has been an enormous  amount of precip in California the past 2 weeks and it ranks pretty high for extremely wet periods!

Some areas with favorable orthographic lifting have seen 20+ inches of liquid precip!

Last 30 days precip below:

However, my point is that this is natural extreme weather that has happened before with a slight increase from climate change.           

See some of the most catastrophic atmospheric rivers and flooding in California history          

            Some of the worst flooding and landslide in California's history occur with storms charged by atmospheric rivers over the winter.  


The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) reminds us of the power of each event, though. A single average Pineapple Express can carry the same amount of water as 20 Mississippi Rivers.

Atmospheric river-fueled storms make regular appearances on the West Coast and have resulted in some of the worst flooding and landslides in California's history.


"Half of California’s water supply comes from ARs (atmospheric rivers), often in powerful downpours that can hit in rapid succession," wrote Elissa Lynn, a meteorologist with the DWR. "On the flip side, we can gradually progress into droughts when we get fewer and fewer ARs and we don’t often get out of a drought until we get an AR. Seven of the last 12 droughts ended with ARs."

The concern comes when those downpours come in rapid succession, occur over a prolonged period of time or are very intense. The current storm is intense, feeding off a level-4-of-5 atmospheric river, and comes on the heels of several other storms.

After one of the driest years on record, the parade of storms with a tropical connection hit hard, starting Dec. 22.

This type of storm has a history that repeats itself, and you don’t have to look too far back to find the evidence.


rainfall totals

A total of 19 atmospheric river storms battered California during the winter of 2018-2019.

A parade of storms made landfall in Southern California from Jan. 3-11, 1995. Eleven Californians died in that time, and 42 California counties were declared disaster areas, according to the NWS.

"One specific site in Santa Barbara County was declared to have been a 500-year event," a NOAA report stated.

Napa Valley, after 27 major floods between the Great Flood of 1862 and 1997, saw 27 major floods. They had the third-highest amount of flood damage claims in the state, according to FEMA.

Over 20 inches of rain fell in 48 hours in Napa in February 1986. Floods caused 3 deaths. Over 7,000 people were evacuated.

Calistoga, in Napa County, saw 29.61 inches of rain in just 10 days, which blew away the record of 20 inches set in 1906. The NWS rain gauge on Atlas Peak, in eastern Napa, recorded 41.08 inches of rain in those 10 days.

Across the state, 13 people died, and authorities evacuated 50,000. The NWS considers this storm the fourth-worst storm in the state's history.

California's worst flood was the compilation of a series of storms over the winter of 1861 and 1862, according to the NWS. No formal weather service existed at the time, but the NWS found reports that San Francisco received more than 41 inches of rain between November and February.

By metmike - Jan. 11, 2023, 8:49 p.m.
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The pattern is already losing some power and will be completely drying out in week 2:

1. Current Jet stream with very last 240 mph speed max roaring across the Pacific, aimed at the West Coast.


2. Week 2 jet stream below. PATTERN CHANGE! Deep troughing along the West Coast changes to upper level ridging and drying out.

312 hour forecast below

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2023, 12:48 p.m.
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                US Climate Is Getting Less Extreme, Not More            

                           Started by metmike - Jan. 13, 2023, 12:37 p.m.            


By metmike - Jan. 19, 2023, 2:42 p.m.
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Note that with all the needed precip (too much at once, like it always falls) California still has a drought.

It's much, MUCH better though.

65% of the United States is abnormally dry this week, the smallest portion since early Sept. and down from the early Nov. peak of 85% (Nov. 15, shown, was 82%). Lots of improvement in the east and in California, but severe drought still threatens #wheat in the Plains.