KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
9:45 AM ET. January US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 47.0; previous 46.2)
9:45 AM ET. January US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 45.3; previous 44.4)
10:00 AM ET. January Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 1)
Shipments Idx (previous 5)
10:00 AM ET. December State Employment and Unemployment
1:00 PM ET. December Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +7.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 238.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +27.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 198.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +24.7%)
Refinance Idx (previous 438.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +34.2%)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 448.015M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.408M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.259M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.483M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.777M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.939M)
Refinery Usage (previous 85.3%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.314M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +2.687M)
Thursday, January 26, 2023
8:30 AM ET. December CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.8%; previous +3.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +3.4%; previous +4.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.8%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +4.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.7%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +2.9%; previous -2.1%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 199K; previous 190K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1647000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +17K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. December New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 615K; previous 640K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -3.9%; previous +5.8%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 8.6)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2820B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -82B)
11:00 AM ET. January Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -13)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 12)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -9)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 2)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 27, 2023
8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +4.4%; previous +4.7%)
10:00 AM ET. December Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 73.9)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous -4.0%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -37.8%)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 64.6; previous 59.7)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 59.9)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.4%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 59.4)
Monday, January 30, 2023
10:30 AM ET. January Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -18.8)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 9.7)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off this month's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,237.16. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,286.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11,983.00. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,237.16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,585.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,286.73.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3925.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4045.36. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4154.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3987.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3925.95.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off the December 30th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130-06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-07.
March T-notes were slightly higher overnight as they consolidates some of the decline off Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.254 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off the December 30th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 118.112. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.308. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.254.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Februarycrude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at $83.27. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $82.38. Second resistance is December 's high crossing at $83.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.82. Second support is January's low crossing at $72.46.
February heating oil is was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off the January 5th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $3.5976 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2376 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.5800. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $3.5976. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.3293. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2376.
February unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-December-2022 decline crossing at $2.8128 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4435 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday high crossing at $2.7090. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-December-2022 decline crossing at $2.8128. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.5458. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4435.
February natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.905 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off November's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 2.598 is the next downside target, First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.905. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at 5.245. First support is last-Friday low crossing at 3.091. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 2.598.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.894 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.894. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.197. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the May 31st 2022 high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07737 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1.09625. Second resistance is the May 31st 2022 high crossing at $1.09680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07736. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06359.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 1.2477 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2137 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1697. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2477. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2137. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08054 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08754. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08054.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $73.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at $75.10. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $73.99. Second support is the January's low crossing at $73.10.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076916 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off October's, the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.079190. Second resistance is the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076916. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 0.074830.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Februarygold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1975.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1875.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1943.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1975.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1911.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1875.10.
March silver was higher overnight as it extends the December-January trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.076 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.076. Second support the December 16th low crossing at $22.735.
March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the November 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0250 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.3550. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.2109. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0250.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.62. Second support is January's low crossing at $6.48 1/4.
March wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.51 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $7.69 3/4. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the December 27th high, the January 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.70 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.70 1/4. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support is the January 10th low crossing at $8.03 1/4. Second support is the January 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below January's low crossing at $8.90 would confirm a downside breakout of the December-January trading range and open the door for a test of August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.24 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $9.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.85. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.76 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off the January 5th low, last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.76 3/4. Second support is the January 5th low crossing at $14.65.
March soybean meal was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $443.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $472.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the August 29th high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $488.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $452.80. Second support is the December 19th low crossing at $443.40.
March soybean oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off the December 27th high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 58.50 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 64.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 64.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.21. First support is the overnight low crossing at 61.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50.
Thanks much tallpine!
Beans spiked higher and closed the gap from Sunday Night this morning........and reversed lower with uncertainty over the upcoming rains and the already done damage.
NG spiked higher from the upcoming cold bu also reversed lower because if its a transient pattern that moderates at the end of 2 weeks.