Employment Blowout Report
6 responses | 1 like
Started by joj - Feb. 3, 2023, 10:05 a.m.

Over 500 thousand new jobs in January.  Participation rate up.  WAY better than the street expected.

I've heard of a jobless recovery.  I've never heard of a recession with robust job growth.  The consumer is 70% of our economy and the consumer has a job.

Everybody is expecting a recession.  I'll believe it when I see it.

By metmike - Feb. 3, 2023, 10:28 a.m.
Like Reply

Great points, thanks joj!

Regarding imminent recession forecasts by everybody.

The Fed just increased interest rates again this past week which slows the economy.

 They must not be on your list of everybody.

By mcfarm - Feb. 3, 2023, 2:54 p.m.
Like Reply

wow Joj, where to start. With fact maybe and no Biden spin would be nice for a change. First of all he needs 5 million jobs back that he caused to disappear during covid....that's 5 million. Next do you  not notice stocks went down and interest rate up?  That's right all the smart people in the market are thinking about 180 degrees opposite of the guy that only lies. Then what do you have. That's right interest rates more likely to go up this fall not down.  Biden comes out and says "that state of the economy is strong" he doesn't not even know what city he is in much less anything about the economy or how weak it really is, good luck following that mess around.

By joj - Feb. 3, 2023, 8:50 p.m.
Like Reply

I almost never respond to Mcfarm (guess why).  This time I will.  I had absolutely ZERO political thoughts in my head when I posted the January employment number.  And I won't go down that silly rabbit hole here either.

Mike,  In his press conferences, chairman Powell has made it clear that his focus is 100% on keeping inflation from getting out of hand.  He has even said that it would be his focus even if it caused a recession.  So I'm not counting him as a pundit.  I'm not even saying that we won't have a recession.  I'm only saying that in 45 years following the markets, I've never seen a recession with robust employment numbers and I've never seen a recession so widely predicted that actually came to pass.

It's hard to be bullish stocks in a rising rate environment but the contrarian in me says continue to buy stocks.  Probably we go sideways.

By metmike - Feb. 3, 2023, 9:52 p.m.
Like Reply


Several great points.

One of them is with regards to mcfarm's  confrontational, counterproductive,  political comment on the trading forum that we've made clear for years is NOT for comments like this.

By metmike - Feb. 3, 2023, 10:09 p.m.
Like Reply

On a more positive note, responding to great posts from joj in this thread:

Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023


Key Points

  • Economists have penciled in a recession in their forecasts for next year, but views vary on the timing and severity.
  • What they do agree on is that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies will be the trigger for the recession, while it was the central bank that rode to the rescue after the last two downturns.
  • “Usually recessions sneak up on us. CEOs never talk about recessions,” said economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “Now it seems CEOs are falling over themselves to say we’re falling into a recession. ... Every person on TV says recession. Every economist says recession. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Here’s what could tip the global economy into recession in 2023    


3 different paths the economy could take in 2023

        Inflation is expected to slow in the coming months, but that could also mean the United States tips into a recession.


Why the US Can Avoid a Recession in 2023




I really  don't have a strong opinion on this and think there's too many unusual things taking place that are very uncertain.

 2 things being the energy markets and war in Ukraine.

Energy production and supplies appear to have improved greatly. Natural gas production has been gushing out at record levels since the end of last Summer and now ng prices are down 75%. That's a huge deal for consumers paying utility bills but it also causes fertilizer costs to plunge.....which makes input cost for farming much lower, which might help during this growing season.

Especially with the La Nina ending and the drought likely to erode even more(as the slight/beneficial global warming resumes), which is favorable for large production and lower food cost for many crops. 

A key will be crude oil prices. If they stay here or lower, it's likely to help keep a lid on inflation. 

Transportation of goods across the country uses up alot of fuel(diesel especially) that gets dialed in at the grocery store. 

By joj - Feb. 4, 2023, 6:22 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks for the links Mike.  Lots of good points in there.