KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, February 6^th, 2023

10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index

                       ETI (previous 116.31)

                       ETI, Y/Y%

Tuesday, February 7, 2023 

8:30 AM ET. December U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -61.51B)

                       Exports (USD) (previous 251.86B)

                       Exports, M/M% (previous -2.0%)

                       Imports (USD) (previous 313.37B)

                       Imports, M/M% (previous -6.4%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

10:00 AM ET. February IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 42.3)

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 36.2)

3:00 PM December Consumer Credit

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +27.9B)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.3M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.7M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.5M)

  N/A              U.S. President Joe Biden delivers State of the Union address

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of  the rally off the January 20^th low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,664.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off the January 20^th low, January's high crossing at 34,342.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. Second resistance is the December 13^th high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the January 5^th low crossing at 32,812.33. Second support is the December 22^nd low crossing at 32,573.43.   

The March NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,819.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 12,934.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,206.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,819.58.   

The March S&P 500 closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low,the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4024.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4085.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4024.69.       

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March T-bonds closed down 1-20-pts. at 130-05. 

March T-bonds closed lower on Friday leaving Thursday's high as a potential double top with the January 19^th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish hinting that a double top might have been posted with Thursday's high. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 19^th high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-05. Second support is December's low crossing at 124-11. 

March T-notes closed down 1040-pts. at 114.135.

March T-notes closed sharply lower on Friday erasing much of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish with a close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.042. If December renews the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 116.235 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.042 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.080. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 116.235. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.042. Second support is the December 30^th low crossing at 111.280. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

March crude oil closed sharply lower on Friday and below the the December-January uptrend line crossing near $75.30 as it extended the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's high, January's low crossing at $72.74 is the next downside target.Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.48. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $83.14. First support is today's low crossing at $73.13. Second support is the January 5^thlow crossing at $72.74.  

March heating oil closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $2.7047 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.1334 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0611. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.1334. First support is today's low crossing at $2.7670. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.7047. 

March unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 2.2439 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.5461 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.5461. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is January's low crossing at $2.2439. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.0488.

March Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.014 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.014. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.005. First support is today's low crossing at 2.341. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off Thursday's low signaling that Thursday's close below the 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.329 was a bear trap. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.475 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.475. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $100.680. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229. 

The March Euro closed lower on Friday and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08697 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.07154 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $1.10590. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.07153. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290. 

The March British Pound closed sharply lower for a second day in a row on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2210 signaling that a short-term top has been posted The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2334 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2479. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2059. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861. 

The March Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Friday signaling that Thursday's high marked a double top with January's high. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 1.08125 signals that a double top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.10815. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.08125. Second support is the January 6^th low crossing at 1.06915. 

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.21. Second support is the January 19^th low crossing at 73.99.

The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 18^th low crossing at 0.076550 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the May 24^th -2021 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 17^th high crossing at 0.079190. Second resistance is the May 24^th -2021 high crossing at 0.080525. First support is the January 18^th low crossing at 0.076550. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075808.    

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April gold closed sharply lower on Friday confirming yesterday's key reversal down and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1927.20 confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1861.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1938.60 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $1975.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1861.50. Second support is the January low crossing at $1846.10. 

March silver closed sharply lower on Friday and below the December 16^th low crossing at 22.735 marking a downside target of the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 22.028 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.748 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 24.750. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.938. First support is today's low crossing at 22.325. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 22.028.   

March copper closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9370 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.1907. Second resistance is the January 18^th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9370. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.7085.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March Corn closed up $0.02 1/4-cents at $6.77 1/2. 

March corn closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18^th high crossing at $6.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.64 1/2. 

March wheat closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at $7.56 3/4.  

March wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.45 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. Closes above the October-November downtrend line crossing near $7.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30^th high crossing at $7.99. First resistance is the October-November downtrend line crossing near $7.63. Second resistance is the December 30^th high crossing at $7.99. First support is January's low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6^th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2. 

March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.07 3/4-cents at $8.73.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the December 27^th high crossing at $8.94 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.48 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $8.92 3/4. Second resistance is the December 27 high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support 20-day moving average crossing at $8.48 1/2. Second support is  is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.11. Third support is the January 10^th low crossing at $8.03 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03 1/4-cents crossing at $9.21 1/2.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10 1/2  would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $9.32. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.85. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $15.32.

March soybeans closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's rally. last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 18^th high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.90.  

March soybean meal closed up $4.70 at $496.50. 

March soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $476.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $500.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $476.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $476.40.

March soybean oil closed down 188-pts. At 59.06. 

March soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the December 27^th high, December's low crossing at 58.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving a crossing at 62.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.64. First support is today's low crossing at 58.92. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed up $0.58 at $86.58. 

April hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidated the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish with that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $88.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at $82.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.84. Second resistance is the last-Friday's high crossing at $88.33. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $82.75. Second support is October's low crossing at $82.63. 

April cattle closed up $0.35 at $164.18. 

April cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $164.23. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $160.53.    

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.05 at $185.98. 

March Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Friday and remains poised to extend the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $187.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 10^th high crossing at $187.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $188.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $183.87. Second support is January's low crossing at $179.18.       

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.92 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $18.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.92. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $16.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.40. 

March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 25.07. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                  

March sugar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target.   

March cotton closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends the November-January trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 16^th high crossing at 89.92 would mark a potential upside breakout of the November-February trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.31. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.