KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 7, 2023
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -61.51B)
Exports (USD) (previous 251.86B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -2.0%)
Imports (USD) (previous 313.37B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -6.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)
10:00 AM ET. February IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 42.3)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 36.2)
3:00 PM December Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +27.9B)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.5M)
N/A U.S. President Joe Biden delivers State of the Union address
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. Overnight trading set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,956.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 12,949.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,325.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,956.64.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4045.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4103.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4045.72.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the November-December uptrend line crossing at 128-23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 19th high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the November-December uptrend line crossing at 128-23. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at 127-30.
March T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the November-December uptrend line crossing at 113.136 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, January's high crossing at 116.080 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.080. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235. First support is the November-December uptrend line crossing at 113.136. Second support is the December 30th low crossing at 111.280.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Marchcrude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $70.56. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.44. First support is Monday's low crossing at $72.25. Second support is December's low crossing at $70.56.
March heating oil is was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1153 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.0158. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1153. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.6653. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401.
March unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5198 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $2.2439 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5198. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is January's low crossing at $2.2439. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $2.1299.
March natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.911 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.300. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.341. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.393 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $105.500. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.393. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $100.680. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07275 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at $1.05290. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.08782 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.10590. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07275. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2284 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1980. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.19. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $73.99.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075952 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of January's low crossing at 0.074830. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077386 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 0.076570. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.078470. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075952. Second support is January's low crossing at 0.074830.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1865.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1926.20 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1926.20. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1865.80. Second support is the January 5th low crossing at $1846.10.
March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $22.028 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.582 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $24.750. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $22.028. Second support the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177.
March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9541 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off the November 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.9930. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9541.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.71 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.71 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.65.
March wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $7.76 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing near $7.76 1/2. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was steady to higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $8.92 3/4. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.53. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at $8.03 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the December 30th high crossing at $9.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.32. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $9.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.12. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.85.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.93 1/2 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 5th low crossing at $14.65. First resistance is January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is the June 9th -2022 high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.16 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.93 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight following Monday's sell off due to profit taking. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal a short-term top has likely been posted. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $477.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. Second resistance is the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $477.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $459.90.
March soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.64 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.64. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.22. First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49.
Thanks tallpine!
Weather is not playing a huge role right now.