KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, February 9, 2023  

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 190K; previous 183K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1655000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -11K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2583B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -151B)

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Friday, February 10, 2023 

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 65.1; previous 64.6)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 62.0)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.6)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews the rally off the January 20^th low, January's high crossing at 34,342.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,652.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. Second resistance is the December 13^th high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the January 5^th low crossing at 32,812.33. Second support is the December 22^nd low crossing at 32,573.43.   

The March NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,33.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 12,934.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,419.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,033.27.   

The March S&P 500 posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4058.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4118.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4058.05.       

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March T-bonds closed up 12-32's at 128-25. 

March T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday but remains below the November-December uptrend line crossing at 128-29 thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the January 5^th low crossing at 126-15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 19^th high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the January 5^th low crossing at 126-15. Second support is December's low crossing at 124-11. 

March T-notes closed up 120-pts. at 113.195.

March T-notes posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 111.280 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.231 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.231 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.231. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 116.000. First support is December's low crossing at 111.280. Second support is the November 3^rd low crossing at 109.220. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

March crude oil closed higher for the third day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $70.56 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.69. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.66. First support is Monday's low crossing at $72.25. Second support is December's low crossing at $70.56.  

March heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1137 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0455. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1137. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.6653. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401.

March unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5279 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 2.2439 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5279. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is January's low crossing at $2.2439. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.0488.

March Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday and is poised to renew the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.873 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.873. Second resistance is the January 24^th high crossing at 3.300. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.341. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $103.850 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $105.500. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $103.850. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $100.680. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229. 

The March Euro closed slightly lower for the fifth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.07327 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.10590. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.07327. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290. 

The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends January's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2280 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2479. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2034. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861. 

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 1.06915 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.10815. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.08020. Second support is the January 6^th low crossing at 1.06915. 

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.18. Second support is the January 19^th low crossing at 73.99.

The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the May 24^th -2021 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 0.075590 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 0.074830. First resistance is February's high crossing at 0.078740. Second resistance is the January 17^th high crossing at 0.079190. First support is January's low crossing at 0.074830. Second support is the December 15^th low crossing at 0.073210.    

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April gold closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1867.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1926.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1926.00. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1867.90. Second support is the January low crossing at $1846.10. 

March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.509 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.509. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 24.750. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 22.028. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177.  

March copper closed lower on Wednesday and remains poised to extend the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9633 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1802 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1802. Second resistance is the January 18^th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9633. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.7085.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March Corn closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $6.78 1/2. 

March corn closed higher on Wednesday following a neutral WASDE report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.71 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18^th high crossing at $6.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.71 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.65. 

March wheat closed up $0.15-cents at $7.64 3/4.  

March wheat closed higher on Wednesday following a friendly WASDE supply-demand report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $7.76 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30^th high crossing at $7.99. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.47 1/2 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.76 1/2. Second resistance is the December 30^th high crossing at $7.99. First support is January's low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6^th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2. 

March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.10 1/4-cents at $8.95 3/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it resumed the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.57 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $8.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. First support 20-day moving average crossing at $8.57 3/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.11. Third support is the January 10^th low crossing at $8.03 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.09-cents crossing at $9.26 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.13 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.32. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.13 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.85. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $15.19 3/4.

March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.17 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this year's rally. last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18^th high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.17 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.94 3/4.  

March soybean meal closed up $0.50 at $481.90. 

March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $478.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $500.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $478.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $461.30.

March soybean oil closed down 31-pts. At 60.58. 

March soybean oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving a crossing at 61.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off the December 27^th high, the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.05. First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.49. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed up $0.75 at $84.03. 

April hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish with that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the January 27^th high crossing at $88.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.83. Second resistance is the January 27^th high crossing at $88.33. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $81.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15.  

April cattle closed up $0.15 at $163.75. 

April cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $164.60. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $162.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.78.    

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.68 at $186.53. 

March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $188.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $188.58. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $188.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.03. Second support is February's low crossing at $182.70.       

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $18.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $17.44. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.43. 

March cocoa closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 25.07.                   

March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.    

March cotton posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Wednesday as it extends the November-February trading range. Multiple closes below Monday's low crossing at 83.07 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, January's low crossing at 80.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the November 16^th high crossing at 89.92 would mark an upside breakout of the November-February trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.37.