Thanks cutworm!

  Summer drought?   I 'thought' he said 'good' growing , especially east of Mississippi River?  Now, ks, neb and north perhaps dry

  Mike??

Thanks tjc,

I gathered the same thing as Eric and feel that this will NOT be an analog to 2012 and a similar drought.

However, there are numerous uncertainties that matter a great deal.

Will soil moisture be replenished in the Plains/Midwest this Spring?

If not, drought chances go up for the Summer.

Will the -PDO continue to be strong? This increases the chance of drought. I think the -PDO will weaken(value increase)

One area that I disagree with him on and that almost never happens. He thinks the models are too fast showing El NIno.

The models have been too fast in killing this La Nina for 2 years, however, that's because it lingered so long.

When ENSO is rapidly changing like it is now, the models and NOAA use official indicators that LAG the changes in the real ocean and atmosphere..........ALWAYS!

They use 3 month averages.

So when their 3 month average reaches the  El Nino threshold and they announce that "we have an El Nino", in the real world, the ocean and atmosphere have already been in El Nino mode for over a month. 

Here's an example.

Below, let's say that  you need an average getting above 6 from a rising number that uses the most recent 3 numbers.

These are the numbers from consecutive periods with rising numbers:

4 to 6 to 8 to 10. The 3 period average gets above 6, when the actual value is above 8 and 1 period AFTER the instantaneous number actually got above 6.

If took an extra period for the 3 period average to reflect what already happened 1 period earlier. 

There's a reason that they do this that makes sense when the tropical temperatures are wavering back and forth or changing slowly but when temps are soaring higher and in 1 direction, like they will be this time with high moderate confidence, the models and NOAA will tell us that we have an El Nino based on their standard/threshold.............well after there's been one in the real world.

The atmosphere has already been acting El Nino-ish because of the CHANGES IN MOMENTUM from a rapidly dying La Nina. 

Perhaps I should have used a different title. " is 2012 an analogue year for summer drought????  Questions about solar cycles? Eric Snodgrass"  

Nothing wrong with your title, cutworm.

with regards to the solar cycle, there isn’t a detectable one affecting drought.

thanksfor the great video!

  Crop insurance or no crop insurance in North Central Illinois?   I get the impression Illinois 'spared' from drought, but ks, neb, dakotas dry, so great prices?

  February thoughts/

tjc,

There's no way to know this early in the year if the drought will continue in some of those states:

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Drought Monitor

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

TJC

Crop Insurance or no insurance? Some questions to ask yourself.

What is your worst crop yield? 2012,1988 1983 other???

What will happen to the operation if if if , o(or maybe when) you repeat your worst crop.

my cost last year per $100,000 of coverage was $2,932. What is the cost benefit? How many years do you have to go without a claim to break even?  34 years? will you have a claim in 34 years?

Is the reward better than the cost. 

Never risk something you cannot afford to lose.

I do not sell insurance. 

There are other considerations.

JMHO

"Never risk something you cannot afford to lose."

I'm making that "post of the week, cutworm! And putting it in our quote of the day.

Extremely wise words that apply in almost every realm.

Sometimes, it's unavoidable but anytime there's a choice and you can  protect yourself or don't need to risk everything.........it's extremely unwise to risk everything intentionally and with no protection.

Sorry for the politics here but the war in Ukraine is the perfect example on a global scale in a different realm but a similar principle.

Risking everything to get into NATO?

They risked something they couldn't afford to lose and now are paying the consequences.

Actually, NATO/UN/US/WEST used Zelensky to make the decision for Ukraine to risk everything that they couldn't afford to lose.

Every year in the US,  Mother Nature can be as brutal as Putin/Russia has been on Ukraine but on the crops, like in 2012, 1988, 1983, years that you mentioned.

Unlike Ukrainians that were dragged in without having any control and no insurance(which couldn't bring back 100,000+ dead people on their side even if they had coverage) producers DO have pretty good crop insurance from our government that will greatly reduce the financial damages from weather to PREVENT the disaster to individual farmers.

It's more than just a risk reward thing based on statistics.

It's a consideration of whether you can lose almost everything in any 1 year even if odds are very tiny, thing.

Peace of mind and protection from something that WILL happen but just rarely. 

Look it the years that cutworm mentioned just in his lifetime!

cutworm is the authority on this and I tip my hat to him for his wonderful point based on expertise. 

  TY Cutworm and MetMike

  This is our bean year.  Beans are like a 'weed', they will pretty much grow even without an average rainfall amount.  I am inclined to forego the expense.  Contra if this were a corn year!  Only downfall is from siblings, who will  not understand the self insurance of not buying the insurance.

  Two claims since 05.  One barely paid the premium; the other was a good check.  So self insured, statistically / actuarily best way to go (if it were only me)  Must decide by March 15

thanks, tjc!

In the long run, insurance companies with extremely deep pockets make money or they wouldn't stay in business(crop insurance may be different).

However, individual disasters in 1` year can exceed an individuals ability to function with their business.

Everybody is different and each risk is different in different fields.

You can go without car insurance and risk losing the cost of your car but what if you kill somebody driving?

With farming, you will risk the crop in the ground and input costs associated with it that include loss of income from selling it.