KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, February 14, 2023   

6:00 AM ET. January NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (previous 89.8)

8:30 AM ET. January CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -4.5%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)

8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)

4:30 PM ET.  API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.2M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.3M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,159.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 12,949.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,159.36. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,703.11.

The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's downside breakout of a symmetrical triangle. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4072.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4072.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3991.47. 

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-27. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 132-22. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 127-01. Second support is the the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07.  

March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the December 30^th low crossing at 111.280 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.135 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.273. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.038. First support is the overnight low crossing at 112.185. Second support is the December 30^th low crossing at 111.280. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:Marchcrude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $82.66 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at $82.66. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $83.14. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.52. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $72.25.  

March heating oil is was steady to slightly higher overnight as it continues to consolidate some of last-week's gains. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.9774 would renew the rally off last-Monday's low while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0294. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.9774. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0294. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.6653. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401. 

March unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5268 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3806 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5268. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $2.5941. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3806. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.2720.    

March natural gas was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.753 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.753. Second resistance is the January 24^th high crossing at 3.300. First support is the February 3^rd low crossing at 2.341. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $103.850 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $105.500. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $103.850. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.295. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.

The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08462 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08462. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1.06740. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.    

The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2260 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2260. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1968. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.  

The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.09520 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the January 12^th low crossing at 1.07190 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.10815. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.08025. Second support is the January 12^th low crossing at 1.07190. Third support is January's low crossing at 1.06915.

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at $75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.22. Second support is the January 19^th low crossing at $73.99.  

The March Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight and is poised to resume the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 0.075590 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of January's low crossing at 0.074830. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077199 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 0.078470. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 0.075590. Second support is January's low crossing at 0.074830.  

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1873.40 would open the door for a possible test of the January 5^th low crossing at $1846.10. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1920.10 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1920.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1873.40. Second support is the January 5^th low crossing at $1846.10.

March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.482 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $22.652. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.482. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $22.028. Second support the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177.    

March copper was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9861 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1579 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1579. Second resistance is the January 18^th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9861. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. Overnight market action sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would open the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.651/2. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/2.   

March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's strong gains. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's rally, the December 30^th high crossing at $7.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.52 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing near $7.90 3/4. Second resistance is the December 30^th high crossing at $7.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.52 1/2. Second support is the January 23^rd low crossing at $7.12 1/2. 

March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's gains. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $9.13 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.58 1/4. Second support is the January 10^th low crossing at $8.03 1/4. 

March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the December 30^th high crossing at $9.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $9.35 3/4. Second resistance is the December 30^th high crossing at $9.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15. Second support is the January 23^rd low crossing at $8.85.   

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

March soybeans were steady to slightly lower overnight but not before spiking to a new high for the year. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June 9^th high crossing at $15.72 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.98 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 25^th low crossing at $14.78 1/4. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $15.53 1/4. Second resistance is the June 9^th -2022 high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.98 3/4. Second support is the January 25^th low crossing at $14.78 1/4.

March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $481.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $506.50. Second resistance is the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $481.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $466.60. 

March soybean oil was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.39. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49.