KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 15, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 249.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +7.4%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 190)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 549.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +17.7%)
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +1.7%; previous -1.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous -1.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. February Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected -19.2; previous -32.9)
Employment Idx (previous 2.8)
New Orders Idx (previous -31.1)
Prices Received (previous 18.8)
9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.7%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 79.0%; previous 78.8%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.6)
10:00 AM ET. February NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 36; previous 35)
10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 826.7M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.4M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 239.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.0M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 120.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.9M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.536M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.43M)
4:00 PM ET. December Treasury International Capital Data
Thursday, February 16, 2023
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. January PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.5%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.4%)
8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.35M; previous 1.382M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -2.3%; previous -1.4%)
Building Permits (expected 1.35M; previous 1.330M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected -7.4; previous -8.9)
Prices Paid (previous 24.5)
Employment (previous 10.9)
New Orders (previous -10.9)
Prices Received (previous 29.9)
Delivery Times (previous -5.6)
Inventories (previous 0.9)
Shipments (previous 11.1)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 200K; previous 196K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1688000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +38K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2366B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -217B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 17, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.1%; previous +0.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.8%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -2.7%)
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -1.0%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
Monday, February 20, 2023
N/A U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight trading set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,271.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 12,949.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,271.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,724.03.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 4060.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4060.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3993.36.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-15. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 132-22. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 127-01. Second support is the the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07.
March T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the December 30th low crossing at 111.280 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.043 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.107. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.009. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 112.030. Second support is the December 30th low crossing at 111.280.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Marchcrude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $82.66 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $82.66. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $83.14. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.52. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $72.25.
March heating oil is was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.9774 would renew the rally off last-Monday's low while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0227. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.9774. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0227. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.6653. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5217 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3871 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5217. Second resistance is February's highcrossing at $2.5941. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3871. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.2720.
March natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 1st high crossing at 2.780 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 1st high crossing at 2.780. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.300. First support is the February 3rd low crossing at 2.341. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $103.850 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $105.500. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $103.850. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.396. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08391 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08391. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1.06740. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2244 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2244. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1968. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.10815. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.08025. Second support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190. Third support is January's low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.23 would signal that Tuesday's high might have marked a double top with the early-February high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.23. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $73.99.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.074563. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076899 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076899. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 0.078470. First support is January's low crossing at 0.074830. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.074563.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1912.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1912.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1841.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.009 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $22.232. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.009. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177. Second support the November 21st low crossing at $20.790.
March copper was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9954 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1417 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1417. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9954. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight following Tuesday's test and rejection of the upper boundary of the January-February trading range crossing at $6.88 3/4. Overnight market action sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would open the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.66 3/4. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.66 3/4.
March wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the December 30th high crossing at $7.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.56 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.07 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 1/2. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $7.12 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight due to profit taking following Tuesday's spike above the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.73 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. Second resistance isthe 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $8.73 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.59.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the December 30th high crossing at $9.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.36 1/4. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $9.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.85.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.02 1/4 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4. If March extends the rally off October's low, the June 9th high crossing at $15.72 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.55 1/2. Second resistance is the June 9th -2022 high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.02 1/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4.
March soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $483.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $508.20. Second resistance is the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $483.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $469.70.
March soybean oil was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.79. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.20. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49.
Thanks tallpine!
Weather is still mild for NG but very low prices and seasonals turning up in this time frame may be finding the cure for low prices.