KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 16, 2023
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. January PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.5%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.4%)
8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.35M; previous 1.382M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -2.3%; previous -1.4%)
Building Permits (expected 1.35M; previous 1.330M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected -7.4; previous -8.9)
Prices Paid (previous 24.5)
Employment (previous 10.9)
New Orders (previous -10.9)
Prices Received (previous 29.9)
Delivery Times (previous -5.6)
Inventories (previous 0.9)
Shipments (previous 11.1)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 200K; previous 196K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1688000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +38K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2366B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -217B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 17, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.1%; previous +0.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.8%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -2.7%)
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -1.0%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
Monday, February 20, 2023
N/A U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews the rally off the January 20th low, December's high crossing at 34,712.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,629.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. Second resistance is the December 13th high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,629.22. Second support is the January 5th low crossing at 32,812.33.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,279.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 12,934.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,279.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,726.94.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 4060.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4060.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3993.72.
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March T-bonds closed down 19/32's at 126-12.
March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-13. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 132-22. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07. Second support is the December 30th low crossing at 124-11.
March T-notes closed down 70-pts. at 112.035.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 111.280 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.037 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.094. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.037. First support is December's low crossing at 111.280. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309.
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March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $82.66 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $80.62. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.66. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.52. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $72.25.
March heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0219 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0219. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0455. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.6653. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.5401.
March unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5235 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3878 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5235. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.2720. Second support is January's low crossing at $2.2439.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 1st high crossing at 2.780 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target.First resistance is the February 1st high crossing at 2.780. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.300. First support is the February 3rd low crossing at 2.341. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.412 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $104.030. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.412. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08376 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08376. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1.06740. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2242 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2242. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2034. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.06915 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.12250. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.08020. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off last-Tuesday's low, November's high crossing at 75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 2ndhigh crossing at 75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.23. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 73.99.
The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.074563 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076878 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076207. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076878. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.074563. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1912.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1912.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is today's low crossing at $1839.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.015 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 22.243. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.015. First support is today's low crossing at 21.385. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177.
March copper closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9953 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1414 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1414. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9953. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.06-cents at $6.76 1/4.
March corn closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking following Tuesday's test the upper boundary of the January-February the trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $6.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.66 3/4.
March wheat closed down $0.16 3/4-cents at $7.69 1/4.
March wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.07 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.07 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $7.12 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.11 1/2-cents at $8.95.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.72 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45. First support 20-day moving average crossing at $8.72 3/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.11.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.07 1/4-cents crossing at $9.24 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.36 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.85.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.11 3/4-cents at $15.25 3/4.
March soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.02 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally, last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.55 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.02 1/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $9.90 at $491.10.
March soybean meal closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $483.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $508.20. Second resistance is monthly resistance the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $483.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $469.60.
March soybean oil closed up 84-pts. At 61.24.
March soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving a crossing at 60.83 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.21 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off the December 27th high, the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.21. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 62.46. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.49.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $1.03 at $86.23.
April hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 27th high crossing at $88.33 would signal that a short-term trend change has taken place. If April resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 27th high crossing at $88.33. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.30. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $81.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15.
April cattle closed down $0.08 at $164.60.
April cattle closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $162.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $165.25. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $164.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $162.70.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.48 at $187.13.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at $190.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $188.58. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at $190.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $184.95. Second support is February's low crossing at $182.70.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday signaling that Tuesday's high appears to have marked a double top with February's high crossing at $18.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $18.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.58.
March cocoa closed sharply higher on Wednesday and posted its highest price since 2-14-22. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, last-February's high crossing at 27.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 25.07.
March sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Wednesday while extending the November-February trading range. Today's close below last-Monday's low crossing at 83.07 has opened the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of January's low crossing at 80.37. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 16th high crossing at 89.92 would mark an upside breakout of the November-February trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.37.
Thanks tallpine!
Hard to be bearish at these low prices, even if the storage surplus will be growing this month and no sign of major cold in the east.