KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 17, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.1%; previous +0.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.8%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -2.7%)
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -1.0%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
Monday, February 20, 2023
N/A U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,631.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off the January 20th low, December's high crossing at 34,712.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 34,342.32. Second resistance is the December 13th high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,631.53. Second support is the January 5th low crossing at 32,812.33.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,344.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 12,934.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,344.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,741.86.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 4060.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4060.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3995.98.
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March T-bonds closed down 29/32's at 125-10.
March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the December 30th low crossing at 124-11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-03. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 132-22. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07. Second support is the December 30th low crossing at 124-11.
March T-notes closed down 95-pts. at 111.240.
March T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 113.175 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 113.175. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.314. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035.
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April crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $82.89 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.76 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. Second resistance is the November 14th high crossing at $86.05. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.76. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9415 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9239. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9415. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732.
April unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5644 is the next downside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5644 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 2.7303 would renew the rally off February's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.7303. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5644. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.4671. Second support is January's low crossing at $2.4157.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 1st high crossing at 2.836 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target.First resistance is the February 1st high crossing at 2.836. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.256. First support is the February 3rd low crossing at 2.416. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.518 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $104.170. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.518. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08284 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08283. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. First support is today's low crossing at $1.06675. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews January's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2221 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2221. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is today's low crossing at 1.1971. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday while extending the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.06915 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.08020. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off today's low, November's high crossing at 75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 2ndhigh crossing at 75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.24. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 73.99.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076704 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076222. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076704. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.074563. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136.
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April gold closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1907.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1907.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is today's low crossing at $1836.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.
March silver closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.898 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 22.034. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.898. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 21.385. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177.
March copper closed sharply higher on Thursday marking a possible upside breakout of the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1355 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0016 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1355. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0016. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.
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March Corn closed down a $0.00 1/4-cent at $6.76.
March corn closed fractionally lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $6.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.67 3/4.
March wheat closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at $7.65.
March wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.07 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.07 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $7.12 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.04-cents at $8.98 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.76 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45. First support 20-day moving average crossing at $8.76 1/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.11.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.05 1/2-cents crossing at $9.30 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.36 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.85.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $15.26 1/2.
March soybeans closed fractionally higher on Thursday as they consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally, last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4 is the next upside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.55 1/2. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.04. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4.
March soybean meal closed up $0.30 at $491.40.
March soybean meal closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $484.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $508.20. Second resistance is monthly resistance the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $484.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $470.80.
March soybean oil closed up 66-pts. At 61.90.
March soybean oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.21 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If March renews the decline off the December 27th high, the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.21. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 62.46. First support is February's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 87% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 56.49.
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April hogs closed down $0.70 at $85.80.
April hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 27th high crossing at $88.33 would signal that a short-term trend change has taken place. If April resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 27th high crossing at $88.33. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.11. First support is February's low crossing at $81.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $81.15.
April cattle closed down $0.55 at $164.05.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $162.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $165.25. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $162.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $161.43.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.00 at $186.33.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $185.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at $190.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $188.58. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at $190.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $185.10. Second support is February's low crossing at $182.70.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $18.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $18.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.62.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday and posted its highest price since 2-14-22. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, last-February's high crossing at 27.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Thursday while extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 80.37 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 86.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!