INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 21, 2023, 8:12 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, February 21, 2023  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 46.8)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 46.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales

 

                       Existing Sales (previous 4.02M)

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -1.5%)

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.9)

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 366900)

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

Wednesday, February 22, 2023  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 230.4)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -7.7%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 179.6)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.5%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 480.5)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -12.5%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

 

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +10.5M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)

 



 

 

Thursday, February 23, 2023  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

 

                       NAI (previous -0.49)

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.33)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.5%)

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -5.0%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.9%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 194K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1696000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +16K)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2266B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -100B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 471.394M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +16.283M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 241.922M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.316M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.237M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.285M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 86.5%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.302M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.234M)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous -4)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 10)

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous -1)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx  

 

                          3

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, February 24, 2023   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income and Outlays

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales

 

                       New Home Sales (previous 616K)

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +2.3%)

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 9.0)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 64.9)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.7)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.9%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.4)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight tradingset the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the February 10th low crossing at 12,243.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 12,949.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 12,243.25. Second support is the January 31st low crossing at 11,871.00.



The March S&P 500 was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3999.24 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 4060.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3999.24. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126-27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 124-14. Second support is the the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12.  



March T-notes were lower overnight as they extend the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.198 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.160. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.198. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Monday's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $80.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $75.32. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.  



April heating oil is was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 14th high crossing at $2.9150 would renew the rally off February's low.First resistance is the February 14th high crossing at $2.9150. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732. 



April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6742 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5768 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at $2.4671. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $2.7303. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.8578. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5768. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.4671.    



April natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 1st high crossing at 2.836 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the February 1st high crossing at 2.836. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.256. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.261. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.816 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $104.605. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.816. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.



The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08093 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07624. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08093. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1.06265. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.    



The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2197 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2197. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.  



The March Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.10815. First support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.06915.

 

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight following last-Friday's spike below the downside of the January-February trading range crossing at $73.99. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March confirms a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range, January's low crossing at $73.10 is a potential downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the January 19th low  crossing at $73.99. Second support is January's low crossing at $73.10.  



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076427 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.075585. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076427. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1898.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1877.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1898.10. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1827.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.



March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.702 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.928. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.702. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177. Second support the November 21st low crossing at $20.790.    



March copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1252 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0141 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1252. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0141. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight as it extends the the January-February trading range. Overnight market action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.93 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.93 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.02 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $6.60 1/4.   



May wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.64 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.14 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $8.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.14 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.64 3/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $7.20 3/4. 



May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.13 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.13 1/4. Second resistance isthe 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.56 1/4. 



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.15 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.28 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.10 1/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.80 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans gapped up and was higher overnight on news that there was scattered frost across portions of Argentina overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off October's low, the June 6th, 2022 high crossing at $15.67 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.06 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 25th low crossing at $14.76. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $15.46 1/4. Second resistance is the June 6th, 2022 high crossing at $15.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.06. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.76.

 

May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $471.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $471.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $460.20. 



May soybean oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 58.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.04. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 64.37. First support is February's low crossing at 58.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 58.36. 


Comments
By metmike - Feb. 21, 2023, 11:43 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

NG getting crushed again from lack of cold in the East!