Just a heads up. I may not be able to upload this afternoons report as we are in the midst of an Ice Storm and may lose power at anytime.
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 22, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 230.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -7.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 179.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 480.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -12.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +10.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)
Thursday, February 23, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
NAI (previous -0.49)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.33)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.5%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -5.0%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.9%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 194K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1696000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +16K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2266B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -100B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 471.394M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +16.283M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 241.922M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.316M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.237M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.285M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.302M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.234M)
11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -4)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 10)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -1)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx
3
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, February 24, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 616K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 9.0)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 64.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.7)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.9%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.4)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,768.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,425.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,425.85. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 12,949.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 12,051.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,768.41.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4102.41 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4102.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3998.18. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126-11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-08. First support is the overnight low crossing at 123-30. Second support is the the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12.
March T-notes were slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.128 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.077. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.128. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Monday's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is the overnight low crossing at $74.95. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil is was lower overnight and working on a possible inside day. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 14th high crossing at $2.9150 would renew the rally off February's low. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 14th high crossing at $2.9150. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732.
April unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6638 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5831 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at $2.4671. First resistance is February's high crossing at $2.7303. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.8578. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5831. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.4671.
April natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off November's high, the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 15st high crossing at 2.693 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the February 15st high crossing at 2.693. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.256. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.967 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $104.605. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the February 14th low crossing at $102.390. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07949 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07624. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07949. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1.06265. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2193 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2193. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.
The March Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.10815. First support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at $73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.68 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.68. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $75.42. First support is the overnight low crossing at $73.73. Second support is January's low crossing at $73.10.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076271 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.075348. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076271. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1893.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1878.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1893.10. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1827.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.
March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.617 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.617. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.352. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177. Second support the November 21st low crossing at $20.790.
March copper was lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, January's high crossing at 4.3550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0211 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0211. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends the the January-February trading range. Overnight market action sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.93 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.93 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.02 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68 3/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $6.60 1/4.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline January's low crossing at $7.20 3/4. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $7.73 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $8.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.14 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $7.41. Second support is January's low crossing at $7.20 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat was sharply lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. Second resistance isthe 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $8.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.64.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.10 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.28 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.10 1/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.80 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Tuesday's gains. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the June 6th, 2022 high crossing at $15.67 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.07 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 25th low crossing at $14.76. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $15.49 3/4. Second resistance is the June 6th, 2022 high crossing at $15.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.07. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.76.
May soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $473.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $473.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $460.70.
May soybean oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the January 18th high crossing at 64.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 63.23. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 64.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.04. Second support is February's low crossing at 58.70.
Thanks much, tallpine!
ng may be putting in a major reversal higher today!