KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 24, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 616K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 9.0)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 64.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.7)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.9%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.4)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement of the January-February rally crossing at 12,051.59. Overnight trading set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,784.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,405.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,405.64. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 12,949.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 12,051.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,784.75.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates around the 50-day moving average crossing at 3998.64. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4097.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4097.84. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3998.64. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-22. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 123-26. Second support is the the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12.
March T-notes were lower overnight as they consolidate above support marked by the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.012 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.278. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.012. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Monday's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil is was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 14th high crossing at $2.9150 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while renewing the rally off February's low. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8264. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9235. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732.
April unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $2.4671 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6429 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6429. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $2.7303. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $2.5219. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.4671.
April natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 15st high crossing at 2.693 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off November's high, the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 15st high crossing at 2.693. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.256. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 103.131 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $104.825. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the February 14th low crossing at $102.390. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07597 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.06764. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07597. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1.05830. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2181 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2181. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.06915 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08725 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.10815. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.06940. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at $73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.56. First support is the overnight low crossing at $73.56. Second support is January's low crossing at $73.10.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075938 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.074895. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075938. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1880.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1848.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1880.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1823.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.
March silver was lower overnight and is trading below the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.170 as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.325 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.325. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.252. First support the November 21st low crossing at $20.790. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.325.
March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0290 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If March renews the rally off last-Wednesday's low, January's high crossing at 4.3550 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0290. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's sharp decline. Overnight market action sets the stage for a fractionally lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's sharp decline, minor support crossing at $6.55 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.69. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.75. First support is around crossing at $6.55 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $6.48 1/4.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline January's low crossing at $7.20 3/4. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $7.73 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at $8.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.14 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $7.40 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $7.20 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.82 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.76 3/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.82 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.57 1/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.16 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.28 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.96 1/2. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.80 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.08 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 25th low crossing at $14.76. If May extends the rally off October's low, the June 6th, 2022 high crossing at $15.67 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $15.49 3/4. Second resistance is the June 6th, 2022 high crossing at $15.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.08 3/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.76.
May soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $475.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $475.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $461.50.
May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the January 18th high crossing at 64.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 63.83. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 64.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.21. Second support is February's low crossing at 58.70.
Thanks tallpine!