U.S. #soybeans 2023/24 S&D from USDA's Ag Outlook Forum. Acres flat on the year but record crop expected on strong yields. Record crush, decent exports. 6.5% stocks/use is a bit roomier than recently but not by too much.
U.S. #wheat 2023/24 S&D from USDA's Ag Outlook Forum. Acres to rise significantly, yield returns to 3 year highs and production rebounds. Exports to 3 year highs. Stocks/use looks high but that number is below average.
Industry analysts are confident USA can increase supplies of #corn & #soybeans in the next marketing year, and the average 2023/24 estimates would each reflect four-year highs. #Wheat is seen increasing by much less %wise.
Three years ago we thought U.S. #corn stocks would surge past 3 billion bushels (33-year high). Instead they fell to 7-year lows. Sharing this as a reminder of just how unpredictable these markets can be. You can't anticipate everything, and some things you never see coming.
Here's my notes for occurrences in past decade (years when March acres were +/- 1% or more from trade guess): Corn hi: 16 19 20 Corn lo: 14 17 18 21 22 Soy hi: 17 22 Soy lo: 13 15 16 18 19 20 21 This chart is also helpful with this list:
