KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
9:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. December U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +7.7%)
9:45 AM ET. February Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey -
Chicago PMI PMI-Adj (expected 45.0; previous 44.3)
10:00 AM ET. February Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 108.5; previous 107.1)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx
10:00 AM ET. February Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -11)
Shipments Idx (previous -3)
1:00 PM ET. January Money Stock Measures
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +3.1%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +9.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.4M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,724.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,551.79. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,724.30. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 32,643.48. Second support is the December 22nd low crossing at 32,573.43.
The March NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,785.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,394.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,394.12. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,785.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 11,494.88.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4092.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4092.24. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3947.50. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75.
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March T-bonds closed up 1/32's at 123-29.
March T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-11. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10.
March T-notes closed up 55-pts. at 111.030.
March T-notes posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.271 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.218. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.271. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off the February 14th high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8148 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8148. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9222. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732.
April unleaded gas posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, February's low crossing at 2.4671 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6341 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6341. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2.7303. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.5195. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.4671.
April Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday and above the February 15th high crossing at 2.693 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.244 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off November's high, the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is the February 15th high crossing at 2.693. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.244. First support is last- Wednesday's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.426 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $106.775. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.426. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07441 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07441. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. First support is today's low crossing at $1.05420. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2173 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews February's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2173. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is the February 17th low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08676 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.07950. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08676. First support is today's low crossing at 1.06210. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.47. Second resistance is the February 2ndhigh crossing at 75.42. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 73.18. Second support is January's low crossing at 73.10.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075717 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.074563. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075717. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1772.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1878.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1842.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1878.10. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1772.80.
March silver closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.162 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 21.498. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.162. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.321.
March copper closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Friday's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0310 has opened the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0886 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Second support is is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down $0.05 3/4-cents at $6.43 1/2.
May corn closed lower on Monday and is poised to test December's low crossing at $6.36 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's low, December's low crossing at $6.36 3/4 is the next line of key support. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.72 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.72 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $6.43. Second support is December's low crossing at $6.36 3/4.
May wheat closed down $0.11 3/4-cents at $7.10.
May wheat closed lower on Monday and posted a new low for the year as it extended the decline off last-May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.66 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.62 1/2. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $7.84 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $7.05 3/4. Second support is the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.18 1/2-cents at $8.16 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower for the fourth-day in a row on Monday as it extended this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. If May extends this month's decline, the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $9.09 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $8.12 1/2. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.14-cents crossing at $8.68 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower for the fifth-day in a row on Monday and posted a downside breakout of the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the January-2022-low crossing at $8.42 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $9.28 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $8.65 3/4. Second support is the January-2022-low crossing at $8.42 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.06 1/2-cents at $15.12 3/4.
May soybeans closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off last-year's low, the contract high crossing at $15.67 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $15.49 3/4. Second resistance is the contract high crossing at $15.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.09. Second support is the February 8th low crossing at $15.00 1/4.
May soybean meal closed up $1.80 at $481.80.
May soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $476.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $476.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $462.40.
May soybean oil closed down 59-pts. At 75.88.
May soybean oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 58.43 is the next downside target. If May renews this month's rally, the January 18th high crossing at 64.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 64.37. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at 66.17. First support is February's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 75% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 58.36.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $1.18 at $84.85.
April hogs closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.52 signals that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.48 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $89.88. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $95.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.52. Second support is February's low crossing at $81.28.
April cattle closed down $0.48 at $164.90.
April cattle closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $166.40. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $162.19.
May Feeder cattle closed up $0.58 at $198.63.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $195.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $199.68. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $195.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $195.06.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $19.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $19.54. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $20.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.95.
May cocoa closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target.
May sugar posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday leaving last-Friday's huge key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 7th low crossing at 19.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.80 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 78.80 is the next downside target.
More precip for wheat in March:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93404/
NG lows are solidly in and confirmed: