KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
9:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. December U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +7.7%)
9:45 AM ET. February Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey -
Chicago PMI PMI-Adj (expected 45.0; previous 44.3)
10:00 AM ET. February Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 108.5; previous 107.1)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx
10:00 AM ET. February Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -11)
Shipments Idx (previous -3)
1:00 PM ET. January Money Stock Measures
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +3.1%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +9.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.4M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,790.26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,401.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,401.01. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 11,773.24. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-February rallycrossing at 11,494.88.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4090.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4090.31. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-02. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10.
March T-notes were lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.218 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.161. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.218. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If April renews the decline off last-Monday's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil is was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9221 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while renewing the rally off February's low. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8078. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9221. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732.
April unleaded gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $2.4671 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6303 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6303. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $2.7303. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $2.5195. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.4671.
April natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the February 15st high crossing at 2.693 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off November's high, the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 15st high crossing at 2.693. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.256. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.562 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $105.320. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.154. Second support is the February 14th low crossing at $102.390. Third support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07566 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.06548. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07566. First support is January's low crossing at $1.05290. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.03601.
The March British Pound was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2166 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2166. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.
The March Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08626 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.07731. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08626. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.06210. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.42 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $73.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $74.06. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.28. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $73.18. Second support is January's low crossing at $73.10.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075529 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.074313. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075529. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high and tested the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1867.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1838.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1867.40. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.006 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.375. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.006. First support the overnight low crossing at $20.475. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.325.
March copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0806 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0806. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4.2370. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at $6.36 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $6.41 1/4. Second support is the December low crossing at $6.36 3/4.
May wheat was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the July-2021 low crossing at $6.47 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.52 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.52 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $8.07 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $6.91 1/4. Second support is the July-2021 low crossing at $6.47 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.71 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.55 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.71 1/4. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the January-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.03 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at $8.65 1/4. Second support is the January-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.09 1/2 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 25th low crossing at $14.76. If May renews the rally off October's low, the June 6th, 2022 high crossing at $15.67 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $15.49 3/4. Second resistance is the June 6th, 2022 high crossing at $15.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.09 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.76.
May soybean meal was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the February 16th low crossing at $472.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $472.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $462.80.
May soybean oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the February 10th low crossing at 59.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 63.83. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 64.37. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 59.04. Second support is February's low crossing at 58.70.
Thank you, tallpine!