KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, March 1, 2023

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 199.8)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -13.3%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 147.1)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -18.1%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 469.9)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.2%)

9:45 AM ET. February US Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 47.8; previous 46.9)

10:00 AM ET. February ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 47.6; previous 47.4)

                       Prices Idx (previous 44.5)

                       Employment Idx (previous 50.6)

                       Inventories (previous 50.2)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 42.5)

                       Production Idx (previous 48.0)

10:00 AM ET. January Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

                       New Construction (expected +0.2%; previous -0.4%)

                       Residential Construction

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 479.041M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.647M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 240.066M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.856M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 121.935M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.698M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 85.9%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.218M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.916M)

11:00 AM ET. February Global Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.1)

4:00 PM ET. February Domestic Auto Industry Sales

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,674.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,526.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,674.39. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 32,643.48. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11.

The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,790.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,401.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,401.64. Second resistance is the February 16^th high crossing at 12,792.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,790.46. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 11,494.88.  

The March S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the January 19^th low crossing at 3901.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4089.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4089.88. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3947.50. Second support is the January 19^th low crossing at 3901.75.        

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

March T-bonds closed down 5/32's at 124-02. 

March T-bonds closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-03. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10.

March T-notes closed down 15-pts. at 111.030.

March T-notes posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.222 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.168. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.222. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

April crude oil closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are  possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64. 

April heating oil closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off the February 14^th high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8077 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8077. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9184. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732. 

April unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6316 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews this month's decline, February's low crossing at 2.4671 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6316. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2.7303. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.5195. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.4671.  

April Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.197 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off November's high, the September-21^st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.778. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.197. First support is last- Wednesday's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.942 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.571 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.942. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.571. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.  

The March Euro closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.05262 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07299 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07299. Second resistance is the February 14^th high crossing at $1.08245. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.05262. Second support the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.03601. 

The March British Pound closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2165 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews February's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2165. Second resistance is the February 14^th high crossing at 1.2277. First support is the February 17^th low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861. 

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08620 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.07696. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08620. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.06210. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461. 

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.40. Second resistance is the February 2^ndhigh crossing at 75.42. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 73.18. Second support is January's low crossing at 73.10.

The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075544 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.074343. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075544. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.   

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

April gold closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1772.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1878.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1840.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1878.10. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1772.80.

March silver closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.030 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 21.423. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.030. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.321. 

March copper closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0886 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956 is the next downside target. First resistance is Friday's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is the January 18^th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Second support is is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

May Corn closed down $0.13 1/4-cents at $6.30 1/4. 

May corn closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below December's low crossing at $6.36 3/4 as it posted its lowest close since the August 18th 2022 low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's low, the August 18^th low crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next line of key support. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $6.30. Second support is the August 18^th low crossing at $6.15 1/4. 

May wheat closed down $0.04 1/2-cents at $7.05 1/2.  

May wheat closed lower on Tuesday and posted a new low for the year as it extended the decline off last-May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.62 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.53. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $7.84 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $7.02 1/2. Second support is the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4. 

May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at $8.12 3/4.

May Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower for the sixth-day in a row on Tuesday as it extended this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. If May extends this month's decline, the January 23^rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.71 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.71 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $9.09 3/4. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4.

May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.01 3/4-cents crossing at $8.66 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower for the sixth-day in a row on Tuesday as it extended Monday's downside breakout of the December-February trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the January-2022-low crossing at $8.42 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $9.28 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $8.63. Second support is the January-2022-low crossing at $8.42 1/2. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

May soybeans closed down $0.33 1/4-cents at $14.79 1/2.

May soybeans closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the January 25^th low crossing at $14.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.21 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.21 1/2. First support is the January 25^th low crossing at $14.76. Second support is February's low crossing at $14.72.  

May soybean meal closed down $14.70 at $467.10. 

May soybean meal closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $476.10 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's sharp decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $462.60. If May renews the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $462.60. Second support is the January 23^rd low crossing at $441.40.

May soybean oil closed down 30-pts. At 60.04. 

May soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 58.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.05. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.10. First support is February's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 75% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 58.36. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed up $0.18 at $84.90. 

April hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, February's low crossing at $81.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.36 would confirm that a shorty-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $89.88. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $95.40. First support is today's low crossing at $84.23. Second support is February's low crossing at $81.28.   

April cattle closed up $0.48 at $165.45. 

April cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $166.40. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $162.31.    

May Feeder cattle closed up $0.98 at $199.70. 

May Feeder cattle closed higher for the sixth-day in a row on Tuesday as it extended the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $195.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $199.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $196.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $195.42.       

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

May coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $19.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $19.54. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $20.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.98. 

May cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.                       

May sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends February's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. Closes above 20.52 or below 19.43 are needed to mark a breakout of February's trading and point the direction of the next trending move. If May resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 7^th low crossing at 19.43 would open the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.24.        

May cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 78.80 is the next downside target.