KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 2, 2023
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 195K; previous 192K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1654000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -37K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity and Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +2.5%; previous +0.8%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.6%; previous +2.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2195B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -71B)
12:00 PM ET. February Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
N/A Texas Independence Day
N/A SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
Friday, March 3, 2023
9:45 AM ET. February US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 50.5; previous 46.8)
10:00 AM ET. February ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 54.3; previous 55.2)
Business Activity Idx (previous 60.4)
Prices Idx (previous 67.8)
Employment Idx (previous 50.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.4)
11:00 AM ET. February Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.1)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,594.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 33,191.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,594.33. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 31,682.20.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,798.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,388.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,388.05. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,798.90. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-February rally crossing at 11,494.88.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4082.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4082.20. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is today's low crossing at 3943.00. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 31/32's at 123-05.
March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high and closed below the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-24. First support is today's low crossing at 122-30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10.
March T-notes closed down 190-pts. at 110.185.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.158 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.111. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.158. First support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.060.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.84. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off the February 17th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9162 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9162. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, February's high crossing at 2.7303 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 2.4671 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 2.7303. Second is January's high crossing at 2.8578. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.5195. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.4671.
April Henry natural gas closed higher for the sixth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.147 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off November's high, the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.839. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.147. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.740 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.942 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.942. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.740. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07188 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.05262 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07188 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07188. Second resistance is the February 14th high crossing at $1.08245. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.05262. Second support the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $1.03601.
The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2161 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews February's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2161. Second resistance is the February 14th high crossing at 1.2277. First support is the February 17th low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08574 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.07466. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08574. First support is today's low crossing at 1.06185. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.32. Second resistance is the February 14thhigh crossing at 75.35. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 73.18. Second support is January's low crossing at 73.10.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075360 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.074157. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075360. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed higher for the third-day in a row on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1879.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1772.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1863.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1879.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1772.80.
March silver closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.884 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.884. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.071. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.321.
March copper gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, last-Friday's high crossing at 4.2370 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Second support is is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up $0.05 1/2-cents at $6.35 3/4.
May corn posted an upside reversal as it closed higher on Wednesday hinting that the long-liquidation off last-Tuesday's high might have come to an end. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's low, the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above broken support crossing at $6.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.59 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.68. First support is today's low crossing at $6.22 1/4. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4.
May wheat closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $7.10.
May wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.60 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.44 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.60 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $7.01 3/4. Second support is the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.03 1/2-cents at $8.16 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday ending a six-day decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. If May extends this month's decline, January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.68 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.68 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $9.09 3/4. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03 1/4-cents crossing at $8.63 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower for the seventh-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the January-2022-low crossing at $8.42 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.07 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $9.28 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $8.60 1/4. Second support is the January-2022-low crossing at $8.42 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed up $0.15 1/4-cents at $14.94 1/4.
May soybeans posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.19 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.09 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.19 1/2. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.76. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4.
May soybean meal closed up $3.20 at $470.30.
May soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Tuesday's sharp decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $463.10. If May renews the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $463.10. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $441.40.
May soybean oil closed up 79-pts. At 60.83.
May soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 58.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.06. First support is February's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 75% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 58.36.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.28 at $84.90.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $81.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.28 would confirm that a shorty-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.28. First support is today's low crossing at $84.08. Second support is February's low crossing at $81.28.
April cattle closed down $0.35 at $165.13.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $166.40. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $162.43.
May Feeder cattle closed down $0.68 at $198.95.
May Feeder cattle posted a huge key reversal down on Wednesday as it ended a six-day rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $195.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $201.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $210.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $196.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $195.66.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $19.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $19.54. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $20.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.00.
May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally to a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed higher on Wednesday and spiked above February's trading range crossing at 20.52. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above 20.52 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of February's trading. If May resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 23.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 7th low crossing at 19.43 would open the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.27.
May cotton closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.52 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's high, January's high crossing at 89.31 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 78.80 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!