Analysts predict USDA will increase 2022/23 U.S. #corn ending stocks on Wednesday, implying the expectation for lighter demand. #Soybeans are seen shrinking slightly while #wheat stocks are seen a bit higher.
USDA takes #Argentina #corn & #soybeans down well below expectations, #Brazil crops are unchanged.
Quick report reaction: USDA printed the whisper numbers for Argentina - USDA isn't usually expected to be so aggressive. The numbers feel warranted. Are they sufficiently low yet? Shrug. US corn export cut valid/expected. Soybeans still tight/interesting despite huge Brazil crop.
U.S. #corn ending stocks come in above expectations after USDA cut 22/23 exports (now 1.85 bbu, was 1.925). #Soybeans tighten on an increase in exports (now 2.015 bbu, was 1.99). Soy crush came down slightly. #Wheat unchanged.
#Argentina's #soybeans are now expected to fall 35% from USDA's original harvest predictions - more than in 2009 or 2018. USDA cut the crop size by nearly 20% just this month - also bigger than any monthly cuts in 2009 or 2018. The 2023 drought has truly been historic.
This is what I was insisting early this year!
#Argentina's 2023 #corn harvest is down 27% from USDA's initial estimate on severe drought. Initial-final in 2009 was -34% and in 2018 it was -20%. The huge underestimation in 2010 is interesting, not exactly sure what caused it, but brings me to my next point (keep reading)...
#Argentina's #corn harvest has expanded rapidly in last decade/two on rising area, whereas soy area has been steadier. So it is necessary here to compare actual tonnage, and the 2023 deviation is largest at -15 mmt from the initial (that was the size of the whole 2009 crop!).
Without any further reduction to #Argentina's #soybeans, the 2023 crop would land 35% below USDA's initial outlook compared with -34% in 2018 and -33% in 2009, also drought years.In the last 15 years, Argy's soy crop beat USDA's initial forecast only 3 times (last was 2016).
Here's the chart in terms of tonnes. 2018 is still leading, as the soy crop fell 19 mmt from the initial to final USDA numbers. 2023 is second with -18 mmt, 2009 was -16 mmt. The misses have gotten progressively worse in last four years on prolonged/worsening drought.
VINTAGE USDA 10 years ago this month, #Brazil still hadn't made the "Major Exporters" section in USDA's #corn table, but it did by May 2013 (first 13/14 estimates) as Brazil's corn exports edged USA's in 12/13. Brazil is set to be No. 1 again in 22/23... and going forward?
Conab ups its #Brazil #corn crop estimate but reduces the harvest of #soybeans. That trimmed soy exports and raised those for corn. Conab acknowledged the heavy rains and delayed sowing of 2nd corn in some regions, but that did not cut output expectations.
Buenos Aires grains exchange on Thursday cut its harvest estimate for #Argentina #soybeans to 29 mmt from 33.5 mmt previously. The #corn crop was reduced to 37.5 mmt from 41 mmt previously.