Previous NG thread:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93288/
Current/recent weather threads:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93742/
Temps from last week for this weeks EIA report.
Bearish/warm again in the eastern 60%, cold in the West.
So a seasonally bearish/small withdrawal.
Look at the unusually large drawdowns from last year that we've been comparing too and gaining a massive supply surplus vs 2022 and the 5 year average.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92520/#92588
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 09:30 | 40B | 38B | 53B | |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 09:30 | 53B | 37B | 15B | |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 09:30 | 15B | 15B | -33B | |
| Apr 07, 2022 | 09:30 | -33B | -26B | 26B | |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 09:30 | 26B | 21B | -51B | |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 09:30 | -51B | -56B | -79B | |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 09:30 | -79B | -73B | -124B | |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 10:30 | -124B | -117B | -139B | |
| Mar 03, 2022 | 10:30 | -139B | -138B | -129B | |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 10:30 | -129B | -134B | -190B | |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 10:30 | -190B | -193B | -222B | |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 10:30 | -222B | -222B | -268B | |
| Feb 03, 2022 | 10:30 | -268B | -216B | -219B | |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 10:30 | -219B | -216B | -206B | |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 10:30 | -206B | -194B | -179B | |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 10:30 | -179B | -173B | -31B | |
| Jan 06, 2022 | 10:30 | -31B | -54B | -136B |
+++++++++++
for week ending March 3, 2023 | Released: March 9, 2023 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: March 16, 2023
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (03/03/22) | 5-year average (2018-22) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 03/03/23 | 02/24/23 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 416 | 451 | -35 | -35 | 323 | 28.8 | 354 | 17.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 515 | 544 | -29 | -29 | 370 | 39.2 | 411 | 25.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 92 | 99 | -7 | -7 | 93 | -1.1 | 95 | -3.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 81 | 99 | -18 | -18 | 162 | -50.0 | 170 | -52.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 925 | 922 | 3 | 3 | 587 | 57.6 | 640 | 44.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 261 | 261 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 70.6 | 182 | 43.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 664 | 661 | 3 | 3 | 435 | 52.6 | 458 | 45.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,030 | 2,114 | -84 | -84 | 1,537 | 32.1 | 1,671 | 21.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 2,030 Bcf as of Friday, March 3, 2023, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 84 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 493 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 359 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,671 Bcf. At 2,030 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Look at the blue line below!!
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2018 through 2022. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
Natural gas futures faltered on Wednesday, a second-consecutive loss, as analysts anticipated another soft government inventory print and traders started to look past a late-winter surge of cold and toward likely benign spring weather. At A Glance: Analysts see modest storage draw Forecasts call for near-term cold Mixed reads on gas production The April Nymex…
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Yep! Temps the last week of March just slightly below average, most of it in the West again with the current chill moderating quickly next week.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
All the weather:
for week ending March 10, 2023 | Released: March 16, 2023 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: March 23, 2023
Bearish but expected!
Look at the blue line on the graph below!
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (03/10/22) | 5-year average (2018-22) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 03/10/23 | 03/03/23 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 391 | 416 | -25 | -25 | 294 | 33.0 | 322 | 21.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 490 | 515 | -25 | -25 | 341 | 43.7 | 383 | 27.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 87 | 92 | -5 | -5 | 88 | -1.1 | 91 | -4.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 72 | 81 | -9 | -9 | 156 | -53.8 | 165 | -56.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 933 | 925 | 8 | 8 | 573 | 62.8 | 632 | 47.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 266 | 261 | 5 | 5 | 158 | 68.4 | 181 | 47.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 667 | 664 | 3 | 3 | 415 | 60.7 | 451 | 47.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 1,972 | 2,030 | -58 | -58 | 1,451 | 35.9 | 1,594 | 23.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 1,972 Bcf as of Friday, March 10, 2023, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 58 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 521 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 378 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,594 Bcf. At 1,972 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2018 through 2022. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
++++++++++++++++
European model was -8 HDDs bearish overnight but it's now the 2nd half of March. HDDs can't make much difference anymore to the main demand/supply dynamic that determines market direction. It's too late in the season. Traders might pay attention still for psychological reasons(which will affect short term, speculative pricing) but its not going to make a substantive difference when there isn't enough potential HDDs left to accomplish that.
Natural gas futures floundered Friday, capping a see-saw week of trading that ultimately left prompt prices in a holding pattern of sorts, with traders trying to assess an uncertain weather outlook, choppy production estimates and stubbornly high storage levels. At A Glance: Stout storage endures Weather outlook evolves Freeport remains key factor The April Nymex…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Snap shot of 6-10/8-14 day outlooks. Very cold outlooks for the month of March from late last month, have instead, turned into just a few transient shots of seasonably cold.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
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Temps thru yesterday for next Thursday EIA report below. More bullish than recent reports(mostly bearish reports) compared to seasonal averages for that week but not enough to make any difference at all in the storage dynamic.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
The month of March has been above average everywhere in the eastern half of the country and MUCH above average along the Gulf Coast, especially in S.TX.:
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Weather doesn't matter much this late in the heating season. Supplies continue to gush in which are fighting against an extremely positive seasonal here. We're getting close to the April contract lows from last month. I think that was 2.113 for NGJ3.
April contract only below. We're almost down to the Low for this contract set in Feb/almost a month ago!
The March contract low from a continuation chart is shown below:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
