KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 5, 2023
8:30 AM ET. April U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +236K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.18)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.27%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.2%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +47K)
Private Payroll (previous +189K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.6%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
11:00 AM ET. April Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.4)
3:00 PM ET. March Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +15.3B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,813.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 13,370.25 would renew this year's rally. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 13,370.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at 13,634.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,813.02. Second support is April's low crossing at 12,800.00.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4069.93 would confirm that an important top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If June resumes the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 4244.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4206.25. Second resistance February's high crossing at 4244.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4069.93. Second support is the March 28th low crossing at 3980.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 133-00 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 134-14. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 129-02 would mark a downside breakout of the March-April trading range thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 133-00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 134-14. First support is Monday's low crossing at 129-02. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 128-08.
June T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 117.015 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.061 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 117.000. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 117.015. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.061. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.138.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Junecrude oil was higher overnight due to short-covering following Thursday's upside reversal. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline from April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $61.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $73.66. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.70. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $63.64. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $61.25.
June heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4667 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.3500. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4667. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217. Second support is the the November-29, 2021 low crossing at 1.9476.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight due to short covering following Thursday's test of last-December's low. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is still possible near-term. Closes below last-December's low crossing at $2.2483 would mark a downside breakout of the December-May trading range. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.0663 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5913 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.4711. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5861. First support is last-December's low crossing at $2.2483. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.0663.
June natural gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.564 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.293. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.564. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.031. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 100.345 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.524 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.524. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 103.594. First support is the April 14thlow crossing at 100.420. Second support is February's low crossing at 100.345.
The June Euro was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.12051 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $1.09720 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08890. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1.11290. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.12051. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1.09722. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.08890.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term. If June extends the rally off the March 8th low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2488 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.2648. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2488. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2325.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the March low, the May-2021 high crossing at 1.14120 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 1.11770 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance the May-2021 high crossing at 1.14120. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.15040. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.11770. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.10680.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight it extends the rally off April's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $73.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.12. Second resistance is the April 4th high crossing at $74.68. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $73.02. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $72.66.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075579 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off the March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075579. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at 0.076475. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.073055. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Junegold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally, which led to a spike above the upper boundary of the March-April trading range crossing at $2063.40. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $2015.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $2085.40. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20. First support is the April 3rd low crossing at $1965.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1968.50.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the March-2022 high crossing at $27.288 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.510 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at $26.435. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at $24.288. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $24.735. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.720.
July copper was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.7645 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0071 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9706. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0071. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.8165. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the July-January rally crossing at 3.7645.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.91 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July renews the decline off April's high, the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.91 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4.
July wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.63 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If July resumes the decline off March's high the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.63 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.87 3/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.17. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, the February-2022 low crossing at $7.45 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 1/2. Second resistance is the April 24th high crossing at $8.35 1/4. First support is Tuesday low crossing at $7.36 1/4. Second support is the January-2022 low crossing at $7.28 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at $7.50 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.50 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.69. Second support is moving average support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.50 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $14.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $13.83 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing $14.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.45 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $13.98 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $13.83 3/4.
July soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $442.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $442.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $453.60. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $418.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90.
July soybean oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 46.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.35. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.59. First support is last-Friday low crossing at 50.57. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 46.42.
Thanks very much, tallpine!!