KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 10, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 214.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 165.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 461.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.8%)
8:30 AM ET. April Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. April CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -3.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Inflation Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +5.6%)
10:00 AM ET. April Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 459.633M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.281M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 222.878M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.742M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 110.323M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.19M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.805M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.403M)
Thursday, May 11, 2023
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 242K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1805000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -38K)
8:30 AM ET. April PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2063B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +54B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, May 12, 2023
8:30 AM ET. April Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -0.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.6%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -1.2%)
10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 63.5)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 60.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.6)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the April-May trading range. Overnight trading set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 13,370.25 would renew this year's rally and mark an upside breakout of the April-May trading range. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 13,001.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,883.00. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 13,370.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at 13,634.26. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 13,001.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,883.00.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4078.24 would confirm that an important top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If June resumes the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 4244.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 1st high crossing at 4206.25. Second resistance February's high crossing at 4244.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4078.24. Second support is the March 28th low crossing at 3980.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 129-02 would mark a downside breakout of the March-April trading range thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 133-00 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 134-14. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 133-00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 134-14. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 129-02. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 128-08.
June T-notes were slightly higher overnight as they consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.039 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 117.015 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 117.000. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 117.015. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.039. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.208.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Junecrude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline from April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $61.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.53. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.89. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $63.64. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $61.25.
June heating oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4296 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4296. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5336. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217. Second support is the the November-29, 2021 low crossing at 1.9476.
June unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5809 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below last-December's low crossing at $2.2483 would mark a downside breakout of the December-May trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.0663. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5444. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5809. First support is last-December's low crossing at $2.2483. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.0663.
June natural gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.317 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If June extends the decline off March's high, the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.317. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.520. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.031. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.333 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 100.389 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.333. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 103.594. First support is the April 14thlow crossing at 100.420. Second support is February's low crossing at 100.345.
The June Euro was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1.09720 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.09080. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.12051 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $1.11290. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.12051. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1.09722. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.09080.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term. If June extends the rally off the March 8th low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2517 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.2682. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2517. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2359.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.11770 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off the March low, the May-2021 high crossing at 1.14120 is the next upside target. First resistance the May-2021 high crossing at 1.14120. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.15040. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.11770. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.10986.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that Monday's high might have posted a double top with April's high. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $74.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $74.68. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $75.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.79.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off the March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075561 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075561. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at 0.076475. First support is the May 2nd low crossing at 0.073055. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Junegold was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $2007.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $2085.40. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20. First support is the April 19th low crossing at $1980.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1979.70.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $25.410 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the March-2022 high crossing at $27.288 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $26.435. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at $24.288. First support is the April 25th low crossing at $24.735. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.998.
July copper was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.7645 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0002 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9515. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0002. First support is April's low crossing at 3.8165. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the July-January rally crossing at 3.7645.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.14 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4.
July wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.57 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If July resumes the decline off March's high the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.57 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.83 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.17. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the May 2nd low. Overnight weakness and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the May 2nd low, April's high crossing at $8.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.99 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.63 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $8.86. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.21. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.99 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the May 3rd low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.49 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.13 1/4 would signal that the rally off the May 3rd low has ended. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.49 3/4. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at $8.95 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.13 1/4. Second support is the May 3rd low crossing at $7.69.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $13.83 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $14.46 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $14.44 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.57. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $13.98 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $13.83 3/4.
July soybean meal was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $437.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $437.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $450.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at $416.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90.
July soybean oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.47 would confirm that the rally off April's low has ended. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.18 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 57.51. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.18. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at 56.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.47. Second support is April's low crossing at 50.57.
Thanks very much, tallpine!!