KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, May 15, 2023

8:30 AM ET. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous 10.8)

                       Employment Idx (previous -8.0)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 25.1)

                       Prices Received (previous 23.7)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed lower on Friday.Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 4^th low crossing at 32,937.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If the Dow renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, May's high crossing at 34,257.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 34,257.83. second resistance is February's high crossing at 33,572.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,150.30. Second support is the May 4^th low crossing at 32,937.50.  

The June NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If June extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 13,634.24 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 13,001.75 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,936.60. First resistance is today's high crossing at 13,494.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 13,634.24. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 13,001.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,936.30. 

The June S&P 500 closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4083.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the February 14^th high crossing at 4223.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 1^st high crossing at 4206.25. Second resistance is the February 14^thhigh crossing at 4223.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4083.72. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3904.06.      

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June T-bonds closed down 23/32's at 130-26. 

June T-bonds posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 133-00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the May 1^st low crossing at 129-02 would mark a downside breakout of the March-April trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance islast-Thursday's high crossing at 133-00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 134-14. First support is May's low crossing at 129-02. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 128-08. 

June T-notes closed down 190-pts. at 115.150.

June T-notes closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at 117.015 would mark a potential upside breakout of the March-May trading range. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.276 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 117.015. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 120.310. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.069. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.276.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

June crude oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, last-Thursday's low crossing at $63.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.22. Second resistance is the April 23^th high crossing at $79.18. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $63.64. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $61.25. 

June heating oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4006 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4006. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5165. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.1500. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217.

June unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.0663 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5111 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5111. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5732. First support is last-December's low crossing at 2.2483. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 2.0663.  

June Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.314 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, monthly support crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.314. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.485. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.031. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The June Dollar closed higher on Friday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.241. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.241 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at $100.345 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.241. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $103.586. First support is the April 14^th low crossing at 100.420. Second support is February's low crossing at 100.345.  

The June Euro closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.09178. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.7774 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10153 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10153. Second resistance is the April 14^th high crossing at 1.11145. First support is April's low crossing at 1.08355. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.7774.

The June British Pound closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2518 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2378 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.2692. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2378. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.2293. 

The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extends the April-May trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 2^nd low crossing at 1.11770 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.15040 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.13940. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.15040. First support is the May 2^nd low crossing at 1.11770. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.11164. 

The June Canadian Dollar closed lower for the second day in a row on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 75.27 is the next upside target. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.81 would open the door for a possible test of April's low. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.23. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 75.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.81. Second support is April's low crossing at 73.23.   

The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075568 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075568. Second resistance is the April 13^th high crossing at 0.076475. First support is the May 2^nd low crossing at 0.073055. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908.    

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

June gold closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1986.10. If April renews the rally off February's low, the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $2085.40. Second resistance is the April 19^th low crossing at $1980.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1986.10. First support is the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20.

July silver closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.120 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.464 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.464. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 26.435. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.120. Second support is the March 28^th low crossing at 23.145.  

July copper closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's sharp decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.6247 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9112 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9112. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9838. First support is today's low crossing at 3.6770. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.6247.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

July Corn closed up $0.04-cents at $5.86 1/4. 

July corn closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.01 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renew the decline off April's high, the November-2021 low crossing at $5.41 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.01 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.13 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.69 1/4. Second support is the November-2021 low crossing at $5.41 1/2. 

July wheat closed up $0.07 3/4-cents at $6.35.  

July wheat closed higher on Friday ending a four-day decline off Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If July renews the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.52 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.80. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.03 3/4. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71. 

July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.35 1/2-cent at $8.77.

July Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher due to a bullish supply-demand report on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.17 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.18 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at $8.86. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.17 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.23 1/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.18 3/4.

July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.09 1/4-cents crossing at $8.46.

July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.48 3/4 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 18^th high crossing at $8.95 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $9.13 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.23 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $8.69.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

July soybeans closed down $0.15 1/2-cents at $13.90.

July soybeans closed lower on Friday following a bearish supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $13.83 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.31 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.53 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at $13.83 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $13.60 3/4.

July soybean meal closed up $3.00 at $434.40. 

July soybean meal closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $434.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $434.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $449.70. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $416.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90. 

July soybean oil closed down 163-pts. at 49.52. 

July soybean oil closed sharply lower on Friday as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 43.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.74 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.78. second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.74. First support is today's low crossing at 49.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 43.42. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

June hogs closed up $0.25 at $84.13. 

June hogs closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at $80.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.77. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $82.73. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at $80.99.  

June cattle closed up $1.45 at $164.40. 

June cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the May 1^st high crossing at $165.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $161.38 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 1^st high crossing at $165.78. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $166.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $161.38. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $160.33.     

August Feeder cattle closed up $2.90 at $228.98. 

August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $227.17 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's rally, April's high crossing at $232.23 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $221.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $229.20. Second resistance is the April high crossing at $232.23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $221.91. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $217.59. 

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

July coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $18.26 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.93. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $20.49. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $18.26. Second support is the January-April uptrend line crossing near $17.72. 

July cocoa posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Friday after posting a new high for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's high, monthly resistance crossing at 32.15 is the next upside target. 

July sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 29.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the May 3^rd low crossing at 24.88 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.           

July cotton closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 85.23 is the next upside target.