4 responses | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - May 21, 2023, 6:46 p.m.


Tuesday, May 23, 2023 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +1.6%)

9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 50.4)

9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Services PMI

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.7)

10:00 AM ET. May Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous -10)

                       Shipments Idx (previous -7)

10:00 AM ET. April New Residential Sales

                       New Home Sales (previous 683K)

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +9.6%)

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.6)

1:00 PM ET. April Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.7M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.5M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)

Wednesday, May 24, 2023 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 214.9)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.7%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 165.4)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.8%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 468.2)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.7%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 467.624M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.04M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 218.33M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.381M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.233M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.08M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 92.0%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.558M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.606M)

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

Thursday, May 25, 2023 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (previous 242K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -22K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1799000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +1.1%)

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.0%)

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q%

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q%

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q%

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q%

                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +3.7%)

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits

8:30 AM ET. April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

                       NAI (previous -0.19)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.01)

10:00 AM ET. April Pending Home Sales Index

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 78.9)

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -5.2%)

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -23.2%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2240B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +99B)

 11:00 AM ET. May Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous -21)

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 14)

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous -10)

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 3)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Friday, May 26, 2023  

8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income and Outlays

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0%)

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.2%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +3.2%)

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +3.5%)

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

                       Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

8:30 AM ET.  April Advance Economic Indicators Report

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 63.5)

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 60.5)

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.6%)

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.2)

By metmike - May 21, 2023, 8:12 p.m.
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Thanks, tallpine!

To me, the weather looks too dry for C and S the next 2 weeks and is bullish. Especially the central and eastern Cornbelt.

W is still bearish because of big rain in the S.Plains.

EE last 12z run for total rains:

By metmike - May 21, 2023, 9:51 p.m.
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We are at an extraordinarily high risk in time to be trading right now.

1. Additional bank failures look likely.

2. Potential default on the debt. Surely they will make an agreement but news on the agreement could cause a brief spike higher and we're getting down to the wire.

3. Horrible war in Ukraine. It's already damaged the US economy with additional inflation just from the  lower supply side dynamics(energy/food)  which caused the Fed to increase interest rates more than it would have.  This also has been a factor in the bank defaults. So much uncertainty and huge stakes. Nuke weapons and we spike 1 way. News of negotiations and it goes the other way. 

By 12345 - May 21, 2023, 10:34 p.m.
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By metmike - May 22, 2023, 2:07 a.m.
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thanks, Jean!