Starting a new thread.
Here's the latest weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95611/
This is the current problem for the entire Midwest. Great for the W.Plains to help eradicate the drought.
1. Rain the last 14 days
2. Rain the last 30 days
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/
Ideally, we want greens in areas with actively growing crops.
Analysts see U.S. #corn rated 71% good/excellent, even with the 5yr average for initial corn condition.
They weren't all issued in the same week of the year, but here's the 5yr history for initial corn ratings:
2022 73%
2021 76%
2020 70%
2019 59%
2018 79%
Full report here:
69% of U.S. #corn is in good/excellent condition, below expectations and the date's recent average, both 71%. Winter #wheat conditions improved notably (but remain relatively poor), and planting of #soybeans is still well ahead of normal.
U.S. #corn is 69% good/excellent, below last year's initial score of 73%. Last year's score was issued a week later, so this is not an ideal comparison, but just to give some idea of the first numbers seen last year. Corn emergence June 5 '22 was a bit ahead of May 28 '23, FYI.
Let's continue the conversation here, with the market apparently paying more attention to the drier EE market now vs following the wetter GEFS earlier in the week.
The markets perception of the weather has morphed more bullish.
Previous thread:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95611/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95611/#95713
Last posts:
By metmike - June 1, 2023, 8:05 a.m.
Re: Re: INO Morning Market Commentary
By metmike - May 31, 2023, 2:13 p.m.
Front month Beans and wheat are going to reverse higher today the way it looks.
By metmike - June 1, 2023, 8:11 a.m.
I continue to side with the much drier European ensemble model that continues to stay pretty dry thru 2 weeks(The GEFS is the wettest with almost double the rains in the Cornbelt).
None of the models show a heat ridge or dome that would completely suppress rains. So even the EE has some rain chances. This was the last 0z EE for you bulls:
8:09 am CDT: I take the last paragraph back. The NON EE models do show an upper level heat ridge building in from the south. This is part of why they are so much wetter because of more GOM moisture and jet stream energy riding on top of the ridge, tracking across the Midwest with a potential, version of a ring of fire type pattern. Lots of uncertainty in the mid-June and beyond forecast.
My take on the increasing dryness and heat as we head into June. Not doing much damage yet. But the building soil moisture deficits have to be a concern for down the line when we hit the critical phases of corn and soybean development.
Quote Tweet
GrainStats.com
@GrainStats
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US Drought Monitor Grain Production Areas Experiencing Drought (+/- weekly change) Corn: 34% (+8%)Cotton: 28% (-8%)Sorghum: 71% (-3%)Soybeans: 28% (+8%)Spring Wheat: 6% (-2%)Winter Wheat: 46%… Show more
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What Scott is referring to
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Dry US #corn and #soybean forecasts continue. Over the prior 10 days we've been asked several times "When do the dry conditions start to impact yields?" By late Aug, there is a clear impact. But when does that start? We examine that here: https://hubs.li/Q01RMzHF0
https://www.cropprophet.com/when-does-drought-impact-corn-yield/
For perspective in the Corn Belt:
1994: 4th driest May, heat in June (but not real dry), record national corn yields
1992: 4th driest May/June (but not hot in June), record national corn yields
1963: 8th driest May/June, heat in June, record national yields
Plant in mud, crop is a bust. Plant in dust, bins will bust.
Isn't that the old adage?
Yep, that's the one, Jim!
My version is "plant in the mud and the crop is a dud"
But that only applies when the weather shifts to the opposite weather of planting for the growing season.
1. Too wet in planting turns into a hot/dry Summer(or in 1993 extreme rains thru July)
2. Too dry during planting turns into timely rains and no extreme heat.
Slight dryness is usually beneficial initially. Roots are forced to expand to get moisture vs staying close to the plant if the ground is saturated.
Expansive roots will pull in more of EVERY nutrient/mineral in the soil all growing season. .......including water if faced with some moderate dry spells.
Shallow rooting, followed by extreme heat/dry that causes the soil moisture to recede to an area beyond root expansion is bad news, besides the less absorption of other nutrients in the soil.
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Back in the real world and not the one with catchy phrases. When we have droughts, like 1988 and 2012 that started early in the year. The reality was planting in the dust and the yields were a big bust!
Another item is subsurface moisture. If the dust is deep, there won't be any moisture reserves for the crop if rain timing isn't near perfect.
Ten commandments of corn planting:
https://www.kasperag.com/799-2/
Huge dichotomy between the much drier European model and the American, GFS model.
1. 12z EE model- Around 1 inch for much of the Cornbelt
2. 12z GEFS model-close to 2 inches for most places
3. Last 18z GEFS model with the better color scheme(can't get that for the EE model). Still almost double the EE, like the previous 12z run.
I continue to be on the side of the EE model based on the pattern. Not a blocking heat ridge. Just temps near average and rains below but still SOME rains.
Overall the drought areas will be EXPANDING the next 2 weeks with this forecast.
Grain market has bought into "dryer"--------short covering
(Probably a chance to sell??)
Sellers don't include me here, tjc. Not with my forecast lining up with the drier Euopean model all week and still now. Finally we have C and S moving in tandem instead of different directions for a more solid (bullish) weather impact signal across the board today.
The just updated 12z EE is still pretty dry. Only around an inch of rain in most of the Cornbelt the next 2 weeks.....around half of the average. This mean INCREASING dry spots and drought on top of already dry soils:
Weeks 3-4 with low confidence, low skill:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
| Week 3-4 Outlooks | |
| Valid: 17 Jun 2023 to 30 Jun 2023 Updated: 02 Jun 2023 | |
Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental)  |
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather-UPDATED LINKS
By coffeeclotch - June 3, 2023, 10:04 a.m.
+ ++++++++++++++++++++
Last weekend we trended wetter and then had a bloodbath Tuesday into early Wednesday.. And then we spent remainder week clawing back.. Even posting gains... Weekly reversals. Interesting to see what unfolds
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By metmike - June 3, 2023, 11:21 a.m.
CC,
You're exactly right! Great account of what happened!
5-28-23 WX turning LESS BULLISH!
26 responses |
Started by metmike - May 28, 2023, 11:39 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95611/
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Re: Re: Re: Crop conditions May 30, 2023
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95705/#95770
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Late in the week, the driest areas were in the ECB, best chance of rain, WCB.
GEFS with almost 2 inches of rain in most places, European Ensemble around 1 inch.
The last couple of model runs have taken away rains in the WCB. Added some in the SE Cornbelt.
As long as the EE has such skinny rains, half the average, I continue bullish.
Let's continue this discussion here:
Any changes.? I kind of figure how this will go
Not much change, Still bullish at the moment
GEFS has almost 2 inches everywhere(a tad bearish) but EE remains drier with just over an inch at most places. The EE is the best model, I think.
This was the 12z EE. Its going to be updated in the next couple of hours.
The previous runs, both models increased rains a tad but not nearly enough, especially on the EE.
Temps in week 2 are warming up now with potential upper level ridging building a bit.
The new runs are coming out now.
THE LAST RAIN WE'VE HAD WAS 0.50" ON MAY 19TH.
THEY KEEP TAKIN' RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST, WITHIN 24 HOURS OF FORCASTING IT.
Jean, over 80% of the planted crops in this area have yet to see their first rain event since planting.
Still not much change overnight!
It's possible that when this upper level ridge starts building in, that we morph into a ring of fire pattern over the top with better chances of rain??
The forecast from the last EE is still not bearish.
1. Upper level map in 2 weeks
2. Total rains for 2 weeks. Still only around a inch. a bit more in the WCB and bullish but still slightly more than the end of last week.
3. The markets are struggling, so this must be dialed in, with the big spike higher after last weeks lows..... we assume.
HAS SCIENCE COME OUT WITH DROUGHT PROOF SEEDS, YET?
QUITE A FEW YEARS AGO, I'D READ AN ARTICLE ABOUT HOW SOMEOBE HAD FOUND 100 YEAR OLD MEXICAN BLUE SEED CORN, THAT WAS STILL VIABLE,
yes on the old seed still viable as wheat seed found in Egyptian pyramids and weed seed found just anywhere will prove.
FRON THE F.W.I.W. DEPARTMENT ~ THEY'VE PUT RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS SUNDAY & MONDAY, TOTALING AN INCH. NW OHIO
