6-16-23
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UswGtRLlCE
Eric is greatly gifted in being able to analyze, communicate and clearly explain enormous amounts of weather information to enlighten viewers with a comprehensive understanding of the weather.
I can spend half the day (night) looking at all the weather data there is to look at, then watch Eric and he shows numerous different items with additional insight.
Eric is the BEST!
6-17-23
6-19-23 update:
Thanks much, cutworm!
Eric is GOOD, very close to great.
I have my favorite--MetMike
Sell grains tonight and hold shorts---OR----sell now with buy stop new high and buy dip into Wednesday??
I want the MetMike that called EVERY turn of the New Orleans Hurricane to reply-----WITH required precautionary CYA disclosures.
Full disclosure-------bought puts Friday AND sold half stored corn. (Sold beans 20 min ago--stop new high)
I appreciate the compliments very much, tic!
2005 featured a lot of NG production in the Gulf And some wild trading during the hurricane threats back in those days…..the good old trading days!
I covered a small long position in CZ at 604.5 Put on at $6 from the open.
this is an odd drought. There is no dome of doom or big upper level high as in every other drought.
im guessing that this pattern breaks down on the models this week….,,with low confidence.
we had a gap higher for the new crop C. and S tonight.
considering how far we’ve come since the lows, .closing the gap would be a pretty solid gap and crap buying exhaustion signature And potentially very beairish/topformation.
but it’s a weather market…….a change in the forecast is what leads the price.
Less dryon some of the last models.
Filled the gaps in both c and s
youre hot tjc!
This ws the top OR this was the predictable knee jerk reaction to less dry/more rain on the last model run.
if the next run or the one after that is much drier again we can go back up.
Corn was up $1+ from the lows and needs more bullish wX ammo the higher we get.
we are still holding suppor and the uptrend and almost all the gains from fri.
none of that matters as much as the next weather model.
wetter and we go lower.
drier and we should hold
Good morning, MetMike
About 3am est, the markets started a somewhat steady decline. Stabilized, and as you stated, are awaiting the next runs. Appears bulls do not want to give up and will really buy/sell with release of next reports.
WE HAD 1 1/2" FORECAST THIS WEEK. (NOTE THE WORD "HAD")
Stopped out 1472
Thanks, tjc, great trade.
the 6z GEFS took out some of the rain that the previous 0z runs PUT IN, so we had the expected reaction/bounce.
pits always nuts on the day session open.
I have no idea how this will go but 2 sided trade and wild gyrations are likely.
crop ratings deterioaration expectations will be a huge factor but that was from last weeks weather.
most important is the forecast and overall, it still got a bit wetter since the open last night but that happened last week….caused a reversal down, the it got drier and we took off like a rocket.
added: im leaning wetter because this is not a dome of death long lasting ridge and extremely unusual, probably related to the really warm Atlantic messing up the warming tropical pacific influence that normally brings great rains.
this increase in rains on 1 model run …..even if it happens I not a drought busting weather pattern change. until that sort of thing happens, we could be having this back and forth for awhile.
THE ROOT SYSTEMS ARE PROBABLY GETTING CONFUSING SIGNALS, TOO! I'VE ALWAYS "MADE MYELF A ROOT" THAT FIGHTS TO SURVIVE! WHAT A STRUGGLE IT CAN BE! _______ "DO I KEEP GOIN' DEEPER LOOKING FOR A DRINK ~ WAIT A LIITLE LONGER ~ TURN UP TO GET THAT SPRINKLE, KNOWING IT MAY WEAKEN MY BODY IF THERE IS NO MORE ~ HOW WELL AM I GONNA WITHSTAND A WIND STORM, WITH MY WEAK ROOTS ~ I BETTER KEEP DIGGIN' DEEPER, WHILE I STILL HAVE THE STRENGTH TO ~ ETC.
You would have made a wonderful root, Jean!
Dryness early, especially for corn is beneficial as you mentioned. It forces roots to expand to find moisture. The more expansive the root system, the more nutrients of all kinds it can absorb all season long.
Wet soils early, result in shallow roots that don't need to go far for moisture...and can only access nutrients within a short distance of the surface plant.
But if moisture is TOO scarce and too far away, it backfires. The entire plant is unable to meet basic water needs and will atrophy and try to go partially dormant to conserve moisture to keep from dying.
In 2012, I watched the soybeans closely all Summer in many locations between Evansville IN and Detroit MI.
July should have killed them in many fields. Probabably would have in 1988.
However, improved hybrids and added CO2(makes plants much more water efficient/drought tolerant) caused them to just go dormant, while the temp wasn't far from 100 and no rain most days.
They sat there with almost no growth or sign of life for a month. Really tiny plants at the end of July. I assumed they were not going to yield much if anything. Probably very shallow roots that never had the chance to develop.
Then, the El Nino kicked in during August(we had our wettest Aug-Oct in history).
Those tiny plants went nuts flowering and those flowers turned into pods that had optimal pod filling weather into early Sept.
Bean yields around here were pretty close to average.
Too late for the corn. It was toast when the rains came.
Here's more on that:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96190/#96251
Markets doing exactly as expected. Gyrating back and forth in both directions because of the uncertainty and continued threat to the crop............that dropped a tad overnight.......so we wait for the next piece of solid news to go decidely in 1 direction.
6-20-23 Eric
Summer solstice
Happy Summer Solstice!
Another great video from Eric! I'm grateful/amazed that we can get this stuff for free!
We live in a wonderful world when it comes to information on the internet if you're somebody that uses it for education/enlightenment.
As an atmospheric scientist this is heaven on earth for me!
LAST NIGHY, THEY'D TAKEN IT ALL OUT
Nutrien's Morning Minute - June 23, 2023