KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, June 21, 2023   

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 208.8)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +7.2%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 163.2)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +7.6%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 434.1)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +6.0%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.4%)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.0M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.1M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.4M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading set the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,732.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 15,475.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,732.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,951.45.  

The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4505.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4329.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4493.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4505.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4402.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4329.68.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 50-day moving average crossing at 129-09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 124-19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-09. Second resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at 129-16. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 125-30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 124-19.  

September T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the March rally crossing at 111.243 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.198 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.198. Second resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 112.190. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 111.243.

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:Julycrude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the June 12^th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the June 12^th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 12^th low crossing at $66.80 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $63.90. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.51. Second resistance is the June 5^th high crossing at $75.06. First support is the June 12^th low crossing at $66.80. Second support is the May low crossing at $63.90.    

July heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight and set sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.3791 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 2.6760 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.5562. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 2.6760. First support is the June 12^th low crossing at 2.2970. Second support is the May 31^st low crossing at 2.2839.

July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5297 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6958 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6958. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $2.7675. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5617. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5297.        

July natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's loss. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.372 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the rally off June's low, the May 19^th high crossing at 2.816 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 19^th high crossing at 2.816. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.118. First support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.136. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.036 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $100.340 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 31^st high crossing at $104.250. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.932.First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $101.585. Second support is May's low crossing at $100.340.

The September Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $1.11710 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08407 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1.10225. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1.11710. First support is May's low crossing at 1.07025. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.06472. 

The September British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight weakness and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2530 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.2863. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2659. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2530.       

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.11918 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews  the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.14920 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.13410. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.14920. First support is May's low crossing at 1.10700. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10197. 

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the May 26^th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $76.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $75.99. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $76.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $75.35. Second support is 20-day moving average crossing at $74.74.

The September Japanese Yen was slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it extends last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 0.070777 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.072620 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at 0.073430. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.074377. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 0.070777. Second support is the October 21^st low crossing at 0.069270. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

Precious Metals: Augustgold was lower overnight as it extends the May-June trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1892.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2007.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2007.20. Second resistance is the May 4^th high crossing at $2102.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1941.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1892.30.  

July silver was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $22.785 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $24.290 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.565. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $26.435. First support is May's low crossing at $22.785. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 22.546.    

July copper was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 8^th high crossing at 3.9595 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7543 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the May 8^th high crossing at 3.9595. Second resistance is the May 1^st high crossing at 4.0050. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7543. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5450.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

Grains: December corn was sharply higher overnight as deteriorating corn crop conditions over the Midwest trigger fund buying. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $6.32 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.17 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $6.32 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.63. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.45 1/2.

September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $7.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.44 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $7.23 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $7.46. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.44 3/4. 

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $9.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.07 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.53 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.02. First support is the June 14^th low crossing at $7.76.3/4. Second support is the May 31^st low crossing at $7.61 3/4. 

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the May 31^st low, May's high crossing at $8.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.16 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.67. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.89 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.30 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.16 1/2.       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $13.69 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.44 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $13.69 1/4. Second resistance 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.44 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.17 1/2.

December soybean meal was sharply higher overnight and sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $418.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $391.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $418.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $428.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $391.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $377.00.

July soybean oil was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the February 22^nd high crossing at 60.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February 22^nd high crossing at 60.52. Second resistance is the December 30^th high crossing at 63.57. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.01.