COFFEE as of 7-24-23 - MarketForum

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COFFEE as of 7-24-23

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Started by tjc - July 24, 2023, 9:20 a.m.

Good morning, MarketForum

Coffee 'appears' to have put in a weekly cycle low on July expiration day, 7-19-23 at 152.30. This weekly low was 27 weeks after its previous weekly low, which was 1-11-23 at 142.00, 35 weeks from its previous low. UPWARD PROGRESSION.

September coffee, now lead contract, put its low in on Monday 7-17-23 at 155.05. It had two "nice" positive days Thursday and Friday rising to a Friday close of 161.85. There was the possibility of a weekly gap on Monday (early) morning open, but a slightly lower open occurred. Now trading plus $2-3 on the day.

September chart 'appears' to be void of any resistance until a previous low near 174.

2023 lead high is near 207. Five year high is near 260.

TRADE WELL!

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Re: COFFEE as of 7-24-23

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By metmike - July 24, 2023, 10:45 a.m.

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Thanks extremely much, tjc!

I'm tied up with several projects right now and will try to follow up.

There's some very chilly air that heads into Brazil this weekend but not cold enough for a coffee frost.

We would need a 1028 surface pressure contour below in coffee-land.

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_sh_alltimes.html

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/mslp_sh_alltimes.html

NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product

The upper level flow is just not amplified enough later this week with the wave approaching below:

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_sh_alltimes.html

NCEP Ensemble t = 072 hour forecast product

Re: Re: COFFEE as of 7-24-23

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By tjc - July 24, 2023, 1:25 p.m.

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JUST SAYING-----quick, 170 kc sept call 86 sept ct call

Re: Re: Re: COFFEE as of 7-24-23

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By metmike - July 24, 2023, 3:14 p.m.

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tjc,

This wasn't to quash your trade idea. Coffee frosts are 1 every 20 year events and coffee makes some sort of a bottom a few times every year without the help of weather.

Seasonally, since they've been finishing up with harvest, this is when harvest pressure has peaked and temporary lows are often put in.

Here's MUCH more from a thread 3 years ago:

Coffee

Started by rockitck - July 22, 2020, 8:48 p.m.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56557/