metmike and WxFollower team up to apply some authentic science in the field of oceanography!
Record warmest water temp?
Started by metmike - July 26, 2023, 12:38 p.m.
By WxFollower - July 26, 2023, 2:14 p.m.
Great work! I've been talking about the exact same thing at AmericanWx. When even Dr. Masters is suggesting that the Manatee Bay buoy's 101.1F isn't a valid record breaker, one can take that to the bank. This is my most recent post on this at AmericanWx, which was done this morning:
Glad to be a part of it!
A poster at AmWx named "40/70 Benchmark" made a GW post that I agreed with 100% and bet you do, too. I responded. Here are both his along with my reply:
7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Exactly. GW is a very polarizing issue....many folks just can't distinguish between someone how feels as though there is rampant overattributing, like myself, from someone who is denying that it exists. It is possible to acknowledge the reality of GW while feeling that it becomes a convenient excuse for everything and anything...whether it be consciously, or unconsciously.
I agree with you on this 100%. I believe that rampant over-attributing actually backfires rather than helps educate the ignorant on AGW, which I like you acknowledge is real. This causes straw-men to be created. These straw-men then lead to AGW skeptics having increased doubt that AGW exists.
Somewhat related to this is the sensationalism surrounding the 101F water temperature that was measured by a buoy in 5 foot deep water in July barely offshore S FL. Numerous media outlets reported on this 101F as if it were a legit world record SST and they still won't stop. First of all, that wasn't even the hottest ever at that buoy as it hit 102 last decade. But not only that, it more importantly wasn't even a legit SST in the normal sense. What the media didn't report was that the waters there are very shallow with a dark bottom that can be seen from above. That dark bottom absorbs extra heat. The tides have a large effect due to the shallowness. Also, that same buoy had a morning low SST of 91 and it cooled to 84F within just 2.5 days due to increased clouds/rainfall. Even Dr. Masters warned others that it isn't legit. Look at this chart:
Did the media report that it cooled 17F within 2.5 days? Of course not.
So, what happened is that many AGW skeptics were attacking the straw-man of the 101F water temp as not legit, which is true. But then they go a step further and use that to claim AGW isn't real, which is false.
The low 90s SSTs at Key West much of this summer were legit and (near) record SSTs for there, and this lead to severe coral bleaching nearby. The low 90s were likely mainly due to AGW in combo with a very dry pattern. Without AGW, that same dry pattern may have resulted in only, say, upper 80s instead of low 90s. Thus, the coral wouldn't have suffered nearly as much. So, there was a legit problem around the Keys made much worse by AGW. The KW buoy isn't in super shallow water. Thus the low 90s were legit SSTs. But repeatedly talking about a non legit 101 SST hurts the recognition of the problem more than it helps because it sounds like BS.
I'm concerned that there was AGW over-attribution regarding the Maui wildfires. Even IF AGW played a part, there was a whole lot more to this than AGW. It does seem that AGW has been used by some as a convenient excuse and it looks bad.
Well stated, Larry!
Adding more icing on the thread of the week cake!
I had a nice post ready to respond to this, but it got screwed up and is gone. I’m frustrated because this site is so wonky (wonkiest by a mile over any other site I’ve ever posted at) and my time is limited. If I get time I hope to retype the post. This reminds me how important it is to continually copy and paste somewhere else while typing a long post at this site. I just wasted a good bit of time.
Yeah, that has happened to me many times too, Larry and it's frustrating to no end.
I wish there was something that I could do but I don't have control and it would cost over $100/hour to do any work.
Your advice to copy it someplace else is a good one if your device doesn't save it when you back up(my I pad does that).
Also, when copying material, sometimes graphs at certain places, the post can be completely rejected, then lost forever after you try to send it. It might be only 1 of every 50 places for instance but there is no way to know which ones they are and if you try to resend using the exact same info from that place...........it gets rejected.
If you send all the info less the offending graph..........it goes thru.
Maybe there's some sort of copyright label which triggers a rejection.
Suggestion: What you can do is to just use the copy function on your mouse to copy it before sending if it has tons of stuff. If it rejects, you can start over and just paste all your word..........but eliminate the offending graph
On the search engine which I've used 10,000 times with great success 99.9% of the time, certain key words are automatically rejected or the thread/post rejected even though it was great at the time. There might be 1 offending graph in the thread/post that is no longer good.
Here's an example of a wonderful thread by you that we can't get anymore for that reason.
This is no consolation but after I lose a big post because of an offending graph pasted on there and feel especially honked off because I already spend way to much time here, I'm usually able to put together the replacement twice as fast because I know what I want on there and the first time, when I was composing it, there was alot of thinking about what to add and where to get it.
Again, this really bums me out to read that happened to you again, Larry.
I hope this misery loves company response and totally understanding the frustration helps.
Outside of that, ALL your posts are massively appreciated for their value to everybody here and I consider you one of my best friends. Not just forum friends but because we share a great deal, especially related to weather and have some wonderful conversations.
Thank you very much!
I’m going to try to post again about how I feel FL Keys coral is in a much worse situation than GBR.
You said, “Will Florida's coral also recover from this years marine heat wave in similar fashion?”
The GBR’s warmest SST month on record was Feb of 2020 (and may still be) with an anomaly of +1.2C. The actual was +29.2C vs normal of +28.0C. Since the warmest normal is Feb, that means Feb of 2020 was also 1.2C warmer than the warmest normal:
According to this, the coral bleaching threshold (BT) is 1.0C above the month with the warmest normal:
So, the GBR only barely crossed its BT then (by only 0.2C). In contrast check out how much worse it was in July of 2023 for the Keys’ coral:
The warmest normal SST for the Keys coral is August, which is at 29.6C. July ‘23 was near 32.6C, meaning a whopping 3C above the 29.6 Aug normal!
So in the Keys, the July ‘23 SST exceeded its BT by a whopping 2.0C vs GBR exceeding its BT by only 0.2C in Feb of 2020. This is why I’m saying the Keys coral is in a much worse situation than the GBR ever was. Hopefully it will recover. But do you see why this is much worse?
Thanks for the great post. Sorry for overlooking it the past several days.
There are definitely plenty of unknowns here because of the uncharted territory that we're in.
I remember the unprecedented bleaching of The Great Barrier Reef several years ago that resulted in most of the experts claiming that most of the reef was dead forever. Not knowing a great deal about coral, I believed them. There was nobody that I can remember stating otherwise.
Then, The Great Barrier Reef recovered recently. Note that it did not just recover but managed record highs.
I remember 15+ years ago, that we were told from dozens of sources, including experts that polars bears were seriously threatened by the melting Arctic ice, which was supposedly needed for them to hunt seals to survive.
Then, a decade+ later, polar bear surveys indicated an INCREASE in polar bear numbers of around 30% from 2005.
STATE OF THE POLAR BEAR REPORT 2018
Susan J. Crockford
The Global Warming Policy Foundation
GWPF Report 32
There are so many other examples of failed catastrophic predictions because of climate change/global warming that I lost count a very long time ago.
Now we have a new, very unprecedented extremely warm marine heat wave that has killed a great deal of the FL coral.
I haven't read everything but many predictions seem to suggest that the coral is dead for good or will never be able to recover to the healthy state that it was at before this year. Please correct me if that impression is not correct.
Since we have had so many completely failed predictions, some turning out to be the exact opposite of the prediction in this field, color me extremely skeptical this time.
For sure, the magnitude of this event puts it in a different league compared to the Great Barrier Reef warmings but without previous events like this, I think claiming the permanent demise of the FL coral is very premature.
There is plenty of evidence of coral that can thrive at ocean temperatures WARMER than what FL had this past Summer. It's a different type of coral but it demonstrates the ability of coral to adapt to warmer temps. That coral obviously took a longer period to adapt.
My bet is that much of the worlds coral will adapt to slightly warmer temperatures and this will likely mean the types that do best in warmer water will flourish and the types that prefer cooler water will not do as well.
Reefs from Gulf of Aqaba in the Red Sea survived rise of seven degrees, say marine scientists
Yet the coral in the experiment at the University of Eilat survived, even as temperatures were raised to five, then six, then seven degrees. “They even showed improved physiological performance at higher temperatures,” says Maoz Fine, the professor of marine science who led the research. “At first we weren’t so sure we were doing everything right, experimentally.”
Their results confirmed years of reports from divers in the Gulf of Aqaba and northern Red Sea. Despite ocean-surface temperatures in the area warming at the same rate as elsewhere, coral species there have never suffered a documented bleaching event. A growing body of research from across the region is leading marine scientists to a compelling possibility: that a large range of corals along the 4,000km Red Sea reef are uniquely resistant to the climate crisis.
“We realised, holy shit, we have an unbelievable situation,” Meibom says. “This is the only coral reef ecosystem that has a chance to withstand the two-to-three degrees of extra heat that we’ll now unavoidably have by the end of the century.”
Biologists dive for secrets of coral reef that survives hot Gulf waters
Scientists this year were using strategies to effectively save some of the FL coral. If these prove effective this year and in the future, there is great hope that the Florida coral reefs will be saved even with major bleaching events.
This guy is an elite authority and not part of the mainstream alarmist bs. If this was not true, why would he be stating it(before this Summer)?
Professor Ridd reviews the latest data on the state of the world’s coral reefs, which is extremely encouraging, especially for the Great Barrier Reef, the largest single reef system, with record high coral cover in 2022. A brief explanation of “bleaching” is given, a brilliant adaptation for corals to cope with warming or cooling temperatures. Finally, a brief comment is made on the subject of academic freedom and the general problem of freedom of speech and thought in universities and on the associated collapse of intellectual rigour and he raises questions on our failing universities and science institutions. Professor Peter Ridd is a geophysicist with over 100 publications and 35 years’ experience working on the Great Barrier Reef; he developed a wide range of world-first optical and electronic instruments for measuring environmental conditions near corals and other ecosystems. He was Professor of Physics at James Cook University in North Queensland for over a decade before being fired in 2018 for pointing out serious quality assurance issues in reef science. He challenged his dismissal by the University and won in principle in the High Court but eventually lost the case on appeal on a technicality. He now volunteers his time to the Institute of Public Affairs to improve quality assurance systems of “science” used by Australian governments to make environmental laws and regulations. He also runs the Reef-Rebels YouTube channel.
Interesting that he was fired for, apparently telling the truth about the Great Barrier Reef in 2017 and contradicting the bogus science of his employer........and the Great Barrier Reef proved him right even though he lost his case.
Peter Ridd fired after ignoring previous warnings from James Cook University
A controversial Australian marine scientist who rejects research showing major human-caused impacts on the Great Barrier Reef has been fired from Queensland’s James Cook University for alleged multiple breaches of its code of conduct.
They are wrong and Peter Ridd is right:
With this being yet another climate science related field that's clearly been hijacked for the political agenda, with attempts here to censor and eliminate anybody that makes statements that contradict the main stream climate crisis narratives, I am extremely skeptical of these extreme narratives.
I'm certainly NOT ruling them out but the widespread pattern of dishonest behavior for science and scientists in these climate science related fields is not isolated. It actually defines them!
Great Barrier Reef is in 'wonderful condition'
The Extraordinary Resilience of Great Barrier Reef Corals, and Problems with Policy Science Professor Peter Ridd
Despite not being an authority on this topic, my experience, witnessing the incredible hijacking of climate science and related fields and widespread colluding of scientists, governments and media to completely control the climate crisis narratives, my gut tells me to believe Peter Ridd.
He was already solidly validated in my book, when years ago he stated that The Great Barrier Reef being dead was a complete hoax..........and the reef recovered nicely, exactly as he predicted, the opposite of what his detractors insisted.
This doesn't mean the coral off the FL coasts will completely recover. Only that the mainstream sources and gatekeepers for information about this topic have already proven their lack scientific credibility.
Coral reef adaptation
Chimerism greatly facilitates the coral’s survival when its natural environment is upset. Indeed some genomes, more adapted to certain environmental difficulties will be expressed accordingly. The less suitable genomes will nevertheless be preserved, because a genetic capacity that is not useful at a certain place and at a given time may be needed in another environment.
The genetic niche role of the chimera is not simply to have a great genetic diversity, but also the preservation of genomes that should have disappeared through natural selection (Frank et al., 1997, Barki et al. , 2002, Amar et al., 2008, Amar and Rinkevich, 2010, Jiang et al., 2015).
However, this genetic diversity also modifies the other survival evolutionary processes already played by corals but also by many other species of the marine ecosystem. Indeed, the plurality of coral genomes modifies the equilibrium within the damaged ecosystems, so it can favor a survival system over another or make it totally ineffective.
Our understanding of corals’ systems is therefore questioned. The pressure of human activities has dramatically accelerated environmental changes. As a result, many species have not had time to adapt to these rapid changes. Corals and all ecosystems that depend on them could therefore evolve in a way never imagined until now.
Such a wonderful topic. Let's learn a bit more about coral!
What are the three main types of coral reefs?
The three main types of coral reefs are fringing, barrier, and atoll.
There are well over 6,000 different types of coral on this planet, so we couldn’t possibly talk about them all here. But, to help you learn more about these fascinating animals, we’ve created this list of the top 22 coolest types of coral on Earth.