KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, July 31, 2023 

9:45 AM ET. July Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

                       PMI-Adj (previous 41.5)

10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous -23.2)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous -4.2)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off July's low, the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,720.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 35,645.35. Second resistance is the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 35,218.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,720.08.  

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning  neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If September renews this year's rally, the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,548.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness. First resistance is the July 19^th high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,548.36. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,036.26.   

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4533.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4634.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4533.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4412.84.      

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September T-bonds closed up 12/32's at 124-05. 

September T-bonds closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 122-30 is the next downside target.If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 128-21 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-24. First support is today's low crossing at 123-09. Second support is July's low crossing at 122-30. 

September T-notes closed up 105-pts. at 111.110.

September T-notes closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 110.050 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off the July 6^th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.297 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.297. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 113.313. First support is today's low crossing at 110.255. Second support is July's low crossing at 110.050. 

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September crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at $81.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance today's high crossing at $80.70. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $81.44. First support isthe 10-day moving average crossing at $77.54. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.44.  

September heating oil closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.0002 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6312 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.9651. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.0002. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.7414. Second support the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6312.    

September unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Friday as it extended the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 23^rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6334 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.9257. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart  crossing at 3.0221. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.7566. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6334.

September Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Thursday's decline, the July 17^th low crossing at 2.477 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off the July 17^th low, June's high crossing at 2.911 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is the July 17^th low crossing at 2.477. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.249. 

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The September Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally leaving yesterday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.164 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 100.320 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 101.825. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.164. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 100.320. Second support is July's low crossing at 99.220.    

The September Euro closed higher on Friday leaving yesterday's huge key reversal down unconfirmed.  The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.09627 is the next downside target. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 1.11770  would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July's high crossing at $1.13105. Second resistance is the March 30^th high crossing at 1.15190. First support is today's low crossing at 1.10490. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.09627. 

The September British Pound closed higher on Friday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2698 is the next downside target. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 1.2999 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.2999. Second resistance is the July 14^th high crossing at 1.3146. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2765. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2698.    

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday confirming yesterday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15289 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 18^th high crossing at 1.17650. Second resistance is the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15289. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13405. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 75.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off the January 7^th low, the September 12^th 2022 high crossing at 77.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28. Second resistance is the September 12^th high crossing at 77.11. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 75.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.25.    

The September Japanese Yen posted a key reversal down on Friday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 0.069755 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.073585. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. First support is today's low crossing at 0.070640. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.   

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August gold posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1952.40 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extended Thursday's decline, June's low crossing at $1911.40 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $2000.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $2000.70. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at $2025.20. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1941.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $1911.40. 

September silver posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.935 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 25.475. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.273. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.935.  

September copper closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 3.9640 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7953 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 3.9540. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.9640. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7953. Second support is the June 29^th low crossing at 3.6830.  

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December Corn closed down $0.12-cents at $5.30 1/4. 

December corn closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below last-Friday's low crossing at $5.31 1/4 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.92 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.73. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.92 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.81.  

September wheat closed down $0.08 1/2-cents at $7.04 1/4.  

September wheat closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.93 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $7.95 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $7.77 1/4. Second resistance is 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $7.95 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.82 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.66 3/4.   

September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.10 1/4-cents at $8.56 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extended the sharp decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $8.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.46 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.29 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.46 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.41 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.28.   

September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.08 1/4-cents crossing at $8.96.

September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.75 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renewed the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.60 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $10.05 1/2 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.75 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.45 3/4.      

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed down $0.15 1/2-cents at $13.82 1/2.

November soybeans closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.75 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off May's low, the April-2022 high crossing at $14.48 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $14.35. Second resistance is the April-2022 high crossing at $14.48 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.75 3/4. Second support is the July 7^th low crossing at $13.15 1/2.

December soybean meal closed down $9.80 at $405.80. 

December soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $403.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $428.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $428.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $403.60. Second support is the July 7^th low crossing at $384.70.   

December soybean oil closed up 33-pts. at 62.40. 

December soybean oil closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 68.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 65.58. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 68.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.18. Second support is the July 10^th low crossing at 58.39. 

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August hogs closed up $1.20 at $103.23. 

August hogs gapped up and closed higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $103.43. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $99.89. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.77.    

August cattle closed up $0.20 at $178.25. 

August cattle closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $178.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $183.98. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $178.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $173.14. 

August Feeder cattle closed up $1.15 at $245.80. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 6^th low crossing at $240.80 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is July's high crossing at $251.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 6^th low crossing at $240.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $240.30.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $16.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $16.55. Second resistance is the June 27^th high crossing at $16.79. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $15.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20. 

September cocoa posted a quiet inside day with a slightly lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 37.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        

October sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 26.19 is the next upside target.  

December cotton closed lower on Friday following yesterday's huge key reversal down increasing the odds that Thursday's high marked a significant top. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 91.29 is the next upside target.