KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 3, 2023
7:30 AM ET. July Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -49%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Productivity and Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +2.3%; previous -2.7%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.5%; previous +6.3%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 227K; previous 221K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -7K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1690000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -59K)
9:45 AM ET. July US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 52.4; previous 54.4)
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 53.3; previous 53.9)
Business Activity Idx (previous 59.2)
Prices Idx (previous 54.1)
Employment Idx (previous 53.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 55.5)
10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +2.2%; previous +0.3%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2987B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +16B)
11:00 AM ET. July Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.0)
12:00 PM ET. July Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, August 4, 2023
8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +200K; previous +209K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%; previous 3.6%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.58)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.12)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.36%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.2%; previous +4.35%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +60K)
Private Payroll (previous +149K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.6%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
Monday, August 7, 2023
10:00 AM ET. July Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 114.31)
ETI, Y/Y%
3:00 PM ET. June Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +7.3B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off July's low, the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,888.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 35,679.13. Second resistance is the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28. First support is the July 27th low crossing at 35,216.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,188.53.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,141.92 is the next downside target. If September renews this year's rally, the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,141.92. Second support is July's low crossing at 15,063.25.
The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Wednesday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at 4433.81 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4634.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4433.81. Second support is July's low crossing at 4411.25.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed down 29/32's at 122-02.
September T-bonds closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-14. First support is today's low crossing at 121-20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21.
September T-notes closed down 45-pts. at 110.235.
September T-notes closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 110.050 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.224 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.224. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 113.080. First support is today's low crossing at 110.150. Second support is July's low crossing at 110.050.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil posted a key reversal down on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance today's high crossing at $82.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.36. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.97.
September heating oil posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.1313 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7177 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.0874. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.1313. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.8653. Second support the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7177.
September unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6960 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the June 23rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.9257. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6960. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5219.
September Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 2.249 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off the July 17th low, June's high crossing at 2.911 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is today's low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.105 as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 103.275 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.977 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 103.275. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.977. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 100.320.
The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.09699 as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.08715 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.11070 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.11770. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $1.13105. First support is today's low crossing at $1.09425. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.08715.
The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2717 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2905 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.2999. Second resistance is the July 14th high crossing at 1.3146. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2683. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 1.2594.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13550 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.15721 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.15721. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is today's low crossing at 1.14130. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13550.
The September Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 74.78 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.71. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28. First support is July's low crossing at 75.47. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.45.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 0.069755 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071858 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071858. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.073015. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.070180. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extended the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $1911.40 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $2020.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $2020.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at $2038.70. First support is today's low crossing at $1949.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $1919.60.
September silver closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.954 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 25.475. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561. First support is the July 6th low crossing at 22.720. Second support is June's low crossing at 22.340.
September copper closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8062 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 4.1825 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.0240. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 4.1825. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8062. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 3.6830.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.06 3/4-cents at $5.00 1/2.
December corn closed lower for the seventh-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $4.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 3/4. First support is the July 18th low crossing at $5.02. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.81.
September wheat closed down $0.12 1/4-cents at $6.40.
September wheat closed lower for the sixth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $6.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.03 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.03 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $7.77 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $6.36. Second support is July's low crossing at $6.22.
September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.17 1/2-cents at $7.87.
September Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the May 31st low crossing at $7.61 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.55 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.25 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.39 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $7.74 1/4. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.61 3/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.05 3/4-cents crossing at $8.49.
September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.47 would open the door for additional weakness and possible test of July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.91 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.79 1/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.91 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.47. Second support is July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.20-cents at $13.21 1/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.97 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.84 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $13.79. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is the July 7th low crossing at $13.15 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.97 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $6.10 at $392.20.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $391.00 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $407.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $407.30. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $424.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $391.00. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at $384.70.
December soybean oil closed down 11-pts. at 60.71.
December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday as it remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.23. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.01 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 68.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.33. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 65.58. First support is the July 10th low crossing at 58.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.01.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.80 at $84.85.
October hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $86.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.60.
October cattle closed down $1.23 at $180.60.
October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $176.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $176.96. Second support is the June 21st low crossing at $171.83.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.38 at $252.03.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends July's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 6th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is July's high crossing at $256.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $246.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $246.17.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.94 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $16.80. Second resistance is the June 27th high crossing at $16.79. First support is July's low crossing at $15.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20.
September cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 37.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 26.19 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 91.29 is the next upside target.
Thanks, tallpine!
Above average rains, below average temps the next 2 weeks in much of the belt.
All the weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Last 18z GEFS:
1. Total rains
2. Upper levels. Huge heat ridge across the entire southern 1/3rd U.S. Strong zonal(west to east flow north of that, with active perturbations in the flow triggering storm clusters every few days. The Bermuda high in the Southeast will be pumping up copious GOM moisture and some of the rain events could be pretty heavy,
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/final/hazards_d3_7_contours.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php
