KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, August 8, 2023
6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 90.8; previous 91.0)
8:30 AM ET. June U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -65.0B; previous -68.98B)
Exports (USD) (previous 247.10B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Imports (USD) (previous 316.08B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -2.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -0.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous +0%)
10:00 AM ET. August IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.3)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 35.5)
11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Household Debt and Credit Report
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -15.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.5M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply higher on Monday as it erased much of last-week's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off July's low, the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,095.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 35,679.13. Second resistance is the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,095.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,320.47.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,231.41 is the next downside target. If September renews this year's rally, the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,231.41. Second support is July's low crossing at 15,063.25.
The September S&P 500 posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at 4452.58 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.37. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4452.58. Second support is July's low crossing at 4411.25.
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September T-bonds closed down 19/32's at 121-13.
September T-bonds posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-03. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 119-25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21.
September T-notes closed down 45-pts. at 111.000.
September T-notes closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.251 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.251. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.158. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 109.240. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265.
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September crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance today's high crossing at $83.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.36. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.75.
September heating oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.1313 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7976 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.0954. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.1313. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.9645. Second support the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7976.
September unleaded gas closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7407 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off the June 23rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 2.9257. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7407. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5432.
September Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, June's high crossing at 2.911 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.457 would open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 2.249. First resistance is the June high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.955 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 103.275 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 103.275. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.955. Second support is the July 27th low crossing at 100.320.
The September Euro posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.11105 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.08715 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.11105. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at $1.11770. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1.09425. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.08715.
The September British Pound closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2811. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2895. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2683. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 1.2594.
The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15930 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13707 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15930. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.14130. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13707.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.36. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.65. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.48. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.01.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071708 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 0.069755 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071708. Second resistance is the July 28th high crossing at 0.073015. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.069970. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.
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December gold posted a quiet inside day with a lower close on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extended the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $1939.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1995.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1995.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2028.60. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at $2034.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1954.50. Second support is June's low crossing at $1919.60.
September silver closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 22.340 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.511 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.511. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 25.475. First support is the July 6th low crossing at 22.720. Second support is June's low crossing at 22.340.
September copper closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8193 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 4.1825 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4.0240. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 4.1825. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8193. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 3.6830.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.01 1/2-cents at $4.95 3/4.
December corn closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $4.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.21 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/2. First support is July's low crossing at $4.81. Second support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2.
September wheat closed up $0.24 1/2-cents at $6.57 1/2.
September wheat closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $6.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $7.77 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.26 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $6.22.
September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.17 1/4-cents at $7.69 3/4.
September Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Monday a six-day decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.30 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.30 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $7.48 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.33.
September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.02-cents crossing at $8.24 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.75 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.47 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.75 1/4. First support is July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4. Second support is the June 14th low crossing at $8.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.31 1/4-cents at $13.02.
November soybeans closed sharply lower on Monday following weekend rains across portions of Iowa and Illinois. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.05 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.70 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at $13.79. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4. Second support is the June 7th low crossing at $11.76.
December soybean meal closed down $6.10 at $391.60.
December soybean meal closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $389.70 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $407.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $407.70. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $424.70. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $389.70. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at $384.70.
December soybean oil closed down 167-pts. at 59.85.
December soybean oil closed lower on Monday as it continues to form a small bear-flag. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.76 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 68.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 65.58. First support is the July 10th low crossing at 58.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.76.
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October hogs closed up $1.48 at $84.55.
October hogs closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains on Tuesday that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renew the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50 is the next upside target. If October extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $80.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $86.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $80.21. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at $77.58.
October cattle closed down $1.63 at $181.28.
October cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $177.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $177.79. Second support is the June 21st low crossing at $171.83.
October Feeder cattle closed down $2.98 at $252.44.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 6th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is today's high crossing at $256.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $247.04. Second support is the July 6th low crossing at $246.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.81. Second resistance is May's low crossing at $17.32. First support is July's low crossing at $15.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20.
September cocoa posted a huge key reversal down as it closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 37.75 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July 7th low crossing at 23.11 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 26.19 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 91.29 is the next upside target.
Thanks very much tallpine
corn and beans both improved 2%. More beneficial gains coming up.