KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, August 8, 2023    

6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (expected 90.8; previous 91.0)

8:30 AM ET. June U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -65.0B; previous -68.98B)

                       Exports (USD) (previous 247.10B)

                       Exports, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

                       Imports (USD) (previous 316.08B)

                       Imports, M/M% (previous -2.3%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -0.2%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.1%)

10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade

                       Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous +0%)

10:00 AM ET. August IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.3)

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 35.5)

11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Household Debt and Credit Report

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -15.4M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.5M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,257.25 is the next downside target. If September renews this year's rally, the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 19^th high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,257.25. Second support is July's low crossing at 15,063.25.

The September S&P 500 was was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4458.95 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the March-2022 high crossing at 4714.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at 4714.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4458.95. Second support is July's low crossing at 4411.25.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend the rally off last-Friday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-24 would signal that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117-19 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-01. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 119-25. Second support isthe October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117-19 is the next downside target. 

September T-notes were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.256 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.256. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.146. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 109.240. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 108.265. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:Septembercrude oil was lower in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 28^th low, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $84.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $83.30. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $84.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.64. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.92.      

September heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.1313 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8167 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.0954. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.1313. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.9828. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8167.    

September unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.7131 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off the June 23^rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $2.9257. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $3.0221. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.7131. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5504.        

September natural gas was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, June's high crossing at 2.911 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.457 would open the door for a possible test of the June 1^st low crossing at 2.249. From a broad perspective, September natural gas remains locked in a long-term trading range that began in April. Closes below June's low crossing at 2.249 or above June's high crossing at 2.911 are needed to mark a breakout of this extended trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the June 26^th high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.249.

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $103.275 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.006 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $103.275. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $104.205. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $101.550. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.006.  

The September Euro was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.08715 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.11073 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.11073. Second resistance is the July 27^th high crossing at $1.11770. First support is July's low crossing at 1.08715. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025. 

The September British Pound was lower overnight following a two-day bounce off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2884 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally  crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2884. Second resistance is the July 27^th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2658. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508.        

The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13764 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15936 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15936. Second resistance is the July 18^th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13764. Second support is the June 30^th low crossing at 1.11790.  

The September Canadian Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it extended the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at $74.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.59. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at $74.48. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at crossing at $74.01.

The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071652 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off the July 14^th high, June's low crossing at 0.069755 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 28^th high crossing at 0.07315. Second resistance is the July 14^th high crossing at 0.073585. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.069970. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

Precious Metals: October gold was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $1919.60 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $1991.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the July 20^th high crossing at $2008.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at $2015.80. First support is the July 6^th low crossing at $1927.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $1919.60.  

September silver was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $22.720 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.505 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.940. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.505. First support is July's low crossing at $22.720. Second support is June's low crossing at $22.340.    

September copper was sharply lower overnight as it renewed the decline off this month's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the June 29^th low crossing at 3.6830 is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.8815 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance last-Friday's high crossing at 3.9280. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is the June 29^th low crossing at 3.6830. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

Grains: December corn was lower overnight due to improving crop conditions across portions of the corn belt. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $4.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.21 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.89 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.81. 

September wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the July 18^th low crossing at $6.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.79 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.69 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.79 1/2. First support is July's low crossing at $6.22. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4.

September Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.28 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.21 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.28. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.48 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.33.   

September Minneapolis wheat was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.73 1/4 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.48. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.55 3/4. First support is July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4. Second support is the June 14^th low crossing at $8.01 1/4.   

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

November soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high on improving weather conditions across the Midwest. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.82 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.67 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at $13.79. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.82 3/4. Second support is the June 28^th low crossing at $12.56 3/4.

December soybean meal was lower overnight as it appears poised to renew the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the July 7^th low crossing at $384.70 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at $392.40 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at $392.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $424.70. First support is the July 7^th low crossing at $384.70. Second support is the June 29^th low crossing at $374.60. 

December soybean oil was lower in overnight trading as it appears to be breaking out to the downside of last-week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.98 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.33 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 68.81. First support is the July 7^th low crossing at 58.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.98.