KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, August 15, 2023 

8:30 AM ET. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous 1.1)

                       Employment Idx (previous 4.7)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 3.3)

                       Prices Received (previous 3.9)

8:30 AM ET. July Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (previous -0.2%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +1.1%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.3%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.3%)

10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

                       Total Inventories (previous +0.2%)

10:00 AM ET. August NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 56)

4:00 PM ET. June Treasury International Capital Data

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.1M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.4M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)

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The Dow closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 35,007.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If the Dow renews the rally off July's low, the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 1^st high crossing at 35,679.13. Second resistance is the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 35,007.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,502.83. 

The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,573.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 19^th high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53. Second support is June's low crossing at 14,420.00.  

The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4473.25 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4554.86 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.37. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4473.25. Second support is July's low crossing at 4411.25.      

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September T-bonds closed down 28/32's at 120-26. 

September T-bonds closed lower on Friday following yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-01. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-23. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 119-25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21. 

September T-notes closed down 205-pts. at 110.070.

September T-notes closed lower on Friday following yesterday's key reversal down and as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.168 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.168. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.086. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 109.240. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265. 

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September crude oil closed higher on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $88.47 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $88.47. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.77.  

September heating oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2700 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 2.9374 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.2310. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2700. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.9374. Second support the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8809.    

September unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 23^rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.7131 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.9859. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.7131. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5856.

September Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.608 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.018. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.249. 

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The September Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 103.275 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 101.550 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 103.275. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 101.550. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.410. Third support is the July 27^th low crossing at 100.320.     

The September Euro closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.08715 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10709 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10709. Second resistance is the July 27^th high crossing at $1.11770. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1.09425. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.08715. 

The September British Pound closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2829 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2829. Second resistance is the July 27^th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2683. Second support is the June 29^th low crossing at 1.2594.    

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13943 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15608 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15608. Second resistance is the July 18^th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.14130. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13943. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.01 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.88. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49.   

The September Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 0.069270 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071461 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071461. Second resistance is the July 28^th high crossing at 0.073015. First support is today's low crossing at 0.069345. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 0.069270.  

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December gold closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extended the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $1939.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1988.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1988.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2028.60. First support is today's low crossing at $1942.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $1939.20. 

September silver closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 22.340 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.883 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.883. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.180. First support is today's low crossing at 22.610. Second support is June's low crossing at 22.340.  

September copper closed lower close on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the June 29^th low crossing at 3.6830 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8504 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8504. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is the June 29^th low crossing at 3.6830. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.

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December Corn closed down $0.09-cents at $4.87 1/4. 

December corn posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Friday renewing the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $4.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.32. First support is July's low crossing at $4.81. Second support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2.  

September wheat closed down $0.11-cents at $6.26 3/4.  

September wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $6.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.78. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $7.77 1/4. First support is July's low crossing at $6.22. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4.   

September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.11 1/4-cents at $7.55 3/4.

September Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.20 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.74 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.48 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.33.   

September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.02-cents crossing at $8.15.

September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4  is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.66 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.49 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.66 3/4. First support is July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4. Second support is the June 14^th low crossing at $8.01 1/4.      

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November soybeans closed down $0.10 3/4-cents at $13.07 1/2.

November soybeans posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Friday hinting that the rebound off the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.82 3/4 might have come to an end. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off July's high, the June 28^th low crossing at $12.56 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.61 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.19 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.61 1/4. First support is the June 28^th low crossing at $12.56 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.46 3/4.

December soybean meal closed down $5.00 at $388.70. 

December soybean meal posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $387.20 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $407.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $407.70. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $424.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at $387.20. Second support is the July 7^th low crossing at $384.70.   

December soybean oil closed down 26 pts. at 60.22. 

December soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.38. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 65.58. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 57.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.52.

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October hogs closed higher $1.00 at $81.33. 

October hogs closed higher on Friday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.00 as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish with signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the June 30^th low crossing at $77.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $83.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $86.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50. First support is the June 30^th low crossing at $77.58. Second support is the June 8^th low crossing at $74.03.     

October cattle closed down $1.20 at $181.33. 

October cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $178.69 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $178.69. Second support is July's low crossing at $176.20. 

October Feeder cattle closed down $0.45 at $252.88. 

October Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 6^th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $256.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $247.92. Second support is the July 6^th low crossing at $246.03.   

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.67. Second resistance is May's low crossing at $17.32. First support is July's low crossing at $15.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20. 

September cocoa posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 30.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.42 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.         

October sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 26.19 is the next upside target. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July 7^th low crossing at 23.11 is the next downside target. 

December cotton closed sharply higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 91.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.