INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 15, 2023, 4:52 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, August 16, 2023  



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 194.5)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.1%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 149.9)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.7%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 416.1)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.0%)



8:30 AM ET. July New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

                       Total Starts (expected 1.45M; previous 1.434M)

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +1.1%; previous -8%)

                       Building Permits (expected 1.48M; previous 1.440M)

                       Building Permits, M/M% (expected +2.8%; previous -3.7%)

9:15 AM ET. July Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.5%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 79.1%; previous 78.9%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.5)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 445.622M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.851M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 216.42M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.661M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.447M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.706M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 93.8%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.727M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.704M)



2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published



Thursday, August 17, 2023 



8:30 AM ET. August Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (expected -10; previous -13.5)

                       Prices Paid (previous 9.5)

                       Employment (previous -1.0)

                       New Orders (previous -15.9)

                       Prices Received (previous 23.0)

                       Delivery Times (previous -12.9)

                       Inventories (previous -1.0)

                       Shipments (previous -12.5)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 240K: previous 248K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +21K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1684000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

10:00 AM ET. July Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -0.7%)

                       Leading Index

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +110.0%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +118.4%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3030B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +29B)

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, August 18, 2023 



10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

10:00 AM ET. July State Employment and Unemployment


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 35,007.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If the Dow renews the rally off July's low, the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 1st high crossing at 35,679.13. Second resistance is the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 35,007.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,572.66. 



The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,501.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53. Second support is June's low crossing at 14,420.00.  



The September S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4480.61 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4546.32 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.37. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4480.61. Second support is July's low crossing at 4411.25.      



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed down 19/32's at 120-03. 



September T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday and spiked to a new low for the year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123-13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123-13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-12. First support is the August 4th low crossing at 119-25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21. 



September T-notes closed down 65-pts. at 109.255.



September T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.030 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.077. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.030. First support is today's low crossing at 109.115. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $88.47 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $88.47. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.58. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at $78.69.  



September heating oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9557 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2700 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.2310. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2700. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9557. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.9374.     



September unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 2.7131 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 23rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.9859. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8329. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 2.7131.  



September Henry natural gas posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.625 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the August 2nd low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.018. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is the August 2nd low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 104.205 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 101.600 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 103.325. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 101.600. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at 100.320.      



The September Euro closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.08715 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10362 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10362. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.10850. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1.08920. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.08715. 



The September British Pound closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2792 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2792. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2619. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 1.2594.    

 

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.14052 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15309 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15309. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is 50-day moving average crossing at 1.14051. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49.   



The September Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14th high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071306 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.069970. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070743. First support is today's low crossing at 0.069040. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 0.069270.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extended the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1919.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1984.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1957.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1984.80. First support is today's low crossing at $1927.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1919.90. 



September silver closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 21.452 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.182 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.883. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.182. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 22.450. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 21.452.  



September copper closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 3.5650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8363 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8363. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is today's low crossing at 3.6560. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down $0.12 1/4-cents at $4.75 1/2. 



December corn closed sharply lower on Tuesday confirming last-Friday's key reversal down as it posted a new low for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.16 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30. First support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.  



September wheat closed down $0.17 1/2-cents at $5.98 1/2.  



September wheat closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.72 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.72 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $7.77 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $5.95 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4.   



September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.13-cents at $7.37 1/2.



September Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at $7.33 would mark a downside breakout of the December-August trading range. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.12 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $7.79 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.20 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $7.33. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $7.29 1/2.   



September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.19-cents crossing at $7.86 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the May 31st low crossing at $7.78 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.20 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.49 1/4. First support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.78 1/4. Second support is the May low crossing at $7.71 3/4.     

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down $0.20 3/4-cents at $13.05 1/4.



November soybeans closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off July's high, the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.54 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.54 1/4. Second resistance is the July 31st gap crossing at $13.79. First support is the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.46 3/4.



December soybean meal closed down $11.50 at $380.50. 



December soybean meal closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the June 29th low crossing at $374.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $400.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $394.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $400.80. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $374.60. Second support is May's low crossing at $361.80.   



December soybean oil closed up 73 pts. at 61.88. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.51 signals that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 57.86 would renew the decline off July's high. First resistance is today's high crossing at 62.69. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 65.58. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 57.86. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 54.67.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $0.95 at $78.20. 



October hogs closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish with signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the June 30th low crossing at $77.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $86.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50. First support is the June 30th low crossing at $77.58. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $74.03.     



October cattle closed down $0.70 at $179.98. 



October cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $178.86 is the next downside target. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $178.86. Second support is July's low crossing at $176.20. 



October Feeder cattle closed down $0.30 at $251.55. 



October Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the July-August trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 6th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $256.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $248.11. Second support is the July 6th low crossing at $246.03.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the January low crossing at $14.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.55. Second resistance is May's low crossing at $17.32. First support is today's low crossing at $14.93. Second support is the January low crossing at $14.46. 



September cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 30.95 is the next downside target.          



October sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 26.19 is the next upside target. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July 7th low crossing at 23.11 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 91.29 is the next upside target.                

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 11:21 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Beans held on and are up over 9c right now, so technically, this still could be a bull flag mentioned earlier.


I'm just going to copy the stuff from earlier, mostly from this afternoon after the close that is still valid this evening.


                Re: Re: INO Morning Market Commentary          

            

                                                          By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 1:46 p.m.            

                                                                  

The market has chosen the downside today because of the +5 condition rating, in addition, Crude is -$2 which is likely adding pressure.

-16c at the moment for beans

Corn is making new lows for the week and the move but beans are still holding the lows for this week and well above the recent low. They have the more positive technical picture, even with the sharp losses today.

That's my positive spin on what still looks pretty bad.

If the weather forecast this bullish(but late) can't inspire speculative buying today, exactly at what point will it?

Answer:

1. I don't know when that point will be well enough to use it to pick the right, low risk spot to buy

2. It can't

3. Picking a point of strong support would be the "take a chance" option..........but then, it might be more gambling based on "wanting" to be long

Update: Choosing option #3 would have made some money this evening

                            

                Re: Re: Re: INO Morning Market Commentary            

         

                By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 2:03 p.m.            

            


Natural Gas Futures Pull Back Amid Cooler Forecast; Production Down on Maintenance

++++++++++++++

Strongly agree with this assessment. The models all took out heat overnight. The GEFS by a whopping -7 CDDs but the EE a more modest -1.5 CDDS. All models show the magnitude of the heat spike higher next week to be very transient. During week 2, it's still hot in some places but LESS and LESS hot.

The last EE below in the purple. Right side it CDDs.


                                    

                                               Re: Re: Re: Re: INO Morning Market Commentary            

                                                      By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 2:12 p.m.            

            

                            S down -22c. 

Unless they get rescued with a last might spike up, this will make the technical picture look pretty bad.

++++++++++

We barely closed above Sunday nights spike lows and are still well above  reversal lows from 1 week ago, which were 1282.

Corn is well below all that now and much weaker than beans.

         ++++++++++++++++++++     

                                                  Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: INO Morning Market Commentary            

                      

                                            By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 2:44 p.m.            

AFTER THE CLOSE ANALYSIS BELOW

                                                                  

Comprehensive Crop condition analysis here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98218/

+++++++++++++++++++

1. Beans barely holding on, with still an outside chance of it being a bull flag after the Aug. 8 reversal up that had some follow thru last week.

https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ZS/


2. Corn is technical toast. Well below the lows of the year now. Amazing how the charts look so different between C and S right now. Previous low was just above 4.81 and we closed around 4.74.

https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ZC/

                                    


        

                

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: INO Morning Market Commentary            

                           By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 3:04 p.m.                       

                Re:   Cotton 7-26-23            

           Cotton put in an ugly day after the -5% condition report on Monday. Crude down sharply today put on additional pressure.  But its still barely holding on to a potential bullish story but can drop much more than this before its more decidely negative. Last Friday's spike above 80c and close just below that looks like a double top with the late July high.

What do you think, tjc?
https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CT/

                                   ++++++++++

                                   R: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: INO Morning Market Commentary            

                                       

                By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 3:05 p.m.            

            

Major top last week in natural gas

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 month

2. 1 year

3. 30+ years


                                    


                                    INO Morning Market Commentary            

                                       

                By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 3:16 p.m.            

            Questions:

1. When was the last time that beans and corn had double digit losses during the growing season with a forecast like this below(though it's LATE in the growing season right now and TOO late to hurt the crop much)?

Answer: NEVER in my memory trading over 3 decades

2. When was the last time that the S crop condition went +5 G/E in key pod filling month, August?

Answer: NEVER and that's the entire reason for #1.

The market is confident that the crop is made here on August 15th!. I think that these next 2 weeks of weather will take a couple of bushels off where were are at this moment, HOWEVER, +5 in the crop condition yesterday added MORE THAN that. 


7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126


Extended weather.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 

                                   

            +++++++++++++++++++++++                                                                                                                         

                Re:  INO Morning Market Commentary            

                                          

                By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 3:36 p.m.            

                                        

Week 2 extreme weather risks from the best weather service on the planet, our NWS:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php


All the comprehensive weather here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/


By metmike - Aug. 15, 2023, 11:25 p.m.
Like Reply

Beans +10c and keeping the positive technical potential alive.

We've not seriously violated the support or uptrend since the reversal up last Tuesday from the spike low that morning of 1280.

Currently at 1315.