Grains Sunday-Monday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 5, 2018, 9:05 p.m.

For weather that effects the growing crops go here:

Huge USDA report out this Friday!

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2018, 9:45 p.m.
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Extraordinarily quiet in early trading so far this evening. 

Enough rain in the forecast to put a bearish spin on the weather.

But there is some heat too, which is a bit bullish for corn but NOT hotter than last weeks outlook:

Heat fill post:

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2018, 9:47 p.m.
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The solid lows are in for corn!

CZ  at 384 is Trading 34c off the lows right now and 44c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.

Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

3 month below September(front month) 

1 year below


5 year below                


 10 year below                

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2018, 9:50 p.m.
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Lows are in for beans! I think (-:

Under pressure late last week because of rains increasing in the Cornbelt in the Week 1 part of the forecast.  August is pod filling for beans and critical for determining yields.

SX is almost 70c+ off the lows(which were 10 year lows), still over $1.55 off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept.

Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above the 10 year lows !!!!!

Soybeans 3 months below


Soybeans 1 year chart below   


Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, currently, we just bounced off of 10 year lows!



By metmike - Aug. 5, 2018, 9:52 p.m.
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 By cutworm - Aug. 2, 2018, 2:33 p.m.            


Wheat and corn at multi year highs,on the Paris exchange, going parabolic (headed to blow off top).Weather in Europe hot and dry. That,s why corn and wheat  are better than beans. Also I think i read about Austria having weather problems with their wheat.


                By cutworm - Aug. 2, 2018, 2:41 p.m.            


I think the forecast for Europe is for high heat and dry from Spain across France and Germany over to Ukraine and Russia.



                By bcb - Aug. 2, 2018, 4:52 p.m.            


Yes World Weather is supportive for Wheat BUT today the rumor was the Ukraine was going to limit wheat exports.

Funny how nobody caught that news today not even at AGTalk


                By silverspiker - Aug. 2, 2018, 5:30 p.m.            


Thank you bcb. Good information on the wheat.


                drought in Missouri            

 Started by mcfarm - Aug. 5, 2018, 1:21 p.m.            

                                  how dry is it in Missouri...already baling soybeans for feed

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2018, 10:21 p.m.
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Rains overnight will have a lot to say about where prices go overnight:

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

Central Great Lakes sector loop

By cutworm - Aug. 6, 2018, 8:40 a.m.
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Wheat; On the Paris exchange a little weaker on forecast of rain and cooler temps moving across Europe latter this week and earlier next week. There is a gap at 208 -210 euros if this starts to fill would be a sign that the top is in. If i were trading this I would have a stop at the gap and short at a break of the bottom of the gap. Wheat growers in US should be hedging 2019 wheat at these prices.

Corn; No gaps on the Paris chart but corn is weaker to day and weaker than wheat. This may be a short trem top in corn as we may head lower into harvest. 

These are just my opinion and not meant to be trading advice.

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2018, 11:20 a.m.
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Export inspections:

Beans were outstanding again. 

Corn dropped but still decent, wheat not so good.

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2018, 12:42 p.m.
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Good discussion on how these temperatures effect the grain fill, started by Wayne this morning.

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2018, 4:06 p.m.
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Crop ratings out:

Corn down 1%, to 71% gd/ex.  Beans down 3% to 67% gd.ex.

Weather is bearish but this should get us off to a strong start tonight, especially beans.

Corn 57% in the dough stage vs 37% average............ahead on maturity, though the last 2 weeks were actually a bit cool and slowed things down a tad.