Temperatures for week 2 on forecast models turned MUCH cooler over the weekend and that trend has continued.
This resulted in a gap lower open on Sunday evening. Losses were extended with strong follow thru selling, so that makes it a powerful downside break away gap on the price charts! Extremely bearish.
Natural gas futures flopped to start the first full week of September as production held strong and forecasts pointed to waning cooling demand as the month wears on. Coming off a cumulative 9% gain over the course of last week, the October Nymex gas futures contract on Tuesday dropped 18.3 cents day/day and settled at…
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There's no MIXED about the weather forecast. Temps are massively cooler compared to last Friday's forecast. CDD's drop all the way down to average from the record warm early/mid September levels predicted 4 days ago. The graph on the right side is CDDs. Purple is the last, 12z run of the European Ensemble below.
Temps from last week for this weeks EIA report.
Mild Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast. Hot everywhere else. Small injection.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
+33 BULLISH!
Interpretation: Blue line on the graph below has been curving down towards the 5 year average but still above average, except in the Pacific which has a small deficit.
The South Central had another withdrawal from widespread, intense heat that required burning a great deal of ng to generate electricity from AC demand.
Note: It was right around this time last year that ng supplies really started gushing in for the rest of the year(had some huge injections in the late Spring too). Easily a record for the injection season. As a result, we could be losing ground vs last year in many weeks ahead. With regards to storage vs the 5 year average, that will depend a great deal on the weather.
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for week ending September 1, 2023 | Released: September 7, 2023 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: September 14, 2023
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (09/01/22) | 5-year average (2018-22) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 09/01/23 | 08/25/23 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 766 | 751 | 15 | 15 | 632 | 21.2 | 702 | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 877 | 853 | 24 | 24 | 772 | 13.6 | 818 | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 218 | 213 | 5 | 5 | 159 | 37.1 | 181 | 20.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 252 | 248 | 4 | 4 | 238 | 5.9 | 262 | -3.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,035 | 1,050 | -15 | -15 | 886 | 16.8 | 963 | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 241 | 249 | -8 | -8 | 182 | 32.4 | 221 | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 795 | 801 | -6 | -6 | 704 | 12.9 | 742 | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,148 | 3,115 | 33 | 33 | 2,686 | 17.2 | 2,926 | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,148 Bcf as of Friday, September 1, 2023, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 33 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 462 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 222 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,926 Bcf. At 3,148 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2018 through 2022.
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Will we resume the huge injections early this Fall??
By metmike - June 1, 2023, 12:21 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural Gas 5-4-23
+110 Bcf WOW!!!! Note the blue line on the graph below! NG keeps gushing in!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94944/#95779
By metmike - June 8, 2023, 10:30 a.m.
+118 Bcf IMPLIED FLOW. 14 of which was reclassified as base gas.
Excellent discussion and stats at this thread below!
NG in 2022 obliterates old record for autumn 100+ injections 69 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Nov. 13, 2022, 7:50 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/90609/
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This record smashing production/supplies gushing in came when prices had spiked to 10 year highs towards the end of last Summer. It also showed that market dynamics are still controlled by the industry based on fundamentals and the price structure and not green agenda or Biden.
The indisputable fact is that switching to more green energy than we have been would be catastrophic, unsustainable and crush our economy while causing massive price increases for residential and industrial customers.
They pretend that isn't true, while presenting a complete fairy tale green energy future based on fake physical, energy and economic laws that can NEVER work because they violate those indisputable laws.
They do it for crony capitalism, political agenda/government funding, corrupted science, dishonest, ratings driven media and misled but sincere environmentalism.
Energy transition is a hoax
Started by metmike - April 15, 2023, 5:50 p.m.
By Kevin Dobbs
September 7, 2023
The cure for low prices?
Low prices!
Low ng prices like we've seen in the futures market this year is what causes negative economic incentive to producers. .........who cut back on investments to bring additional supplies to the market down the road.
The dropping rig count(rigs searching/drilling for ng) shows that exactly.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs
US Natural Gas Rig Count is at a current level of 114.00, down from 115.00 last week and down from 158.00 one year ago. This is a change of -0.87% from last week and -27.85% from one year ago.
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https://neftegazru.com/tech-library/drilling-rigs-and-their-units/629643-rig-sount/
A Rig count is an official listing of all the oil and gas rigs that are operational at a certain location. This count demonstrates the necessary details such as the location of each rig and its functional status.
It is an important procedure as it helps to get an insight of the active number of drilling rigs that are installed on both offshore and onshore sites. A Rig count can be done nationally or internationally in different phases such as weekly, monthly or annually.
A Rig count is a tally process of active or inactive rigs. A Rig count helps in collecting data that helps in analyzing several factors and indicating the status of drilling activities.
A rig would be counted even if it is down and inactive or up and active. It is a definitive measure of understanding the drilling status of an oil well. This counting process of drilling rigs can also provide an insight to data such as the type and volume of oil or gas produced, well depth, production, drilling costs etc.
As a matter of fact, it is also used as a measurement of the production range. The rigs are counted from weekly to annual basis and can range from nationwide counting to global counting.
In general, the Rig count indicates a willingness for oil and gas companies to continue investing. Rig counts signify the actual activity within the current market. They are separate from speculation and analysis because they are the actual activity within the market.
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DUCs-key factor
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php
Natural gas price charts with analysis/interpretation
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 week chart-forecasts turning MUCH cooler over the weekend/early this week.
2. 1 month-late August spike up from heat could not challenge early August high
3. 6 month-very telling. MAJOR bottom in April, followed by bullish run/uptrend but the uptrending channel/slope weakened in July/Aug with new highs JUST barely in early Aug that the market was UNABLE TO HOLD.
4. 1 year-Main thing to note is the price a year ago. MEGA top and price 3.5 times the current price. Then supplies started gushing in.
5. 30 years-shows the top 1 year ago. Highest price in well over a decade. Prices right now are historically on the low side.
Don't really follow NG. Will this have much effect?
Thanks much, buck!
Since the date of the article was 7 days ago, I would say no to the short term Impact on price.
We gapped lower last Sunday Night, almost entirely because of the weather forecast turning much cooler over last weekend compared to the previous Friday.
Not sure on how much impact this dynamic in the article will have longer term and how much the market has already dialed in that impact to the current price If there is any.
Sep 12, 2023
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After starting off weak Sunday Night and continuing that way overnight. NG has displayed good strength. Prices really too off just after 9am this morning. Not sure why it picked that time frame but the weather is pretty bullish in week 2, for mid/late Sept.
The bottom right is the last 2 runs of the EE for CDDs. Close to average week 1, then soaring to almost double average during week 2. If this was July/August it wouldn't be bullish but it will keep the injections from being as robust as the could be in late Sept. as we try to fill storage heading into Winter.
By Kevin Dobbs
September 13, 2023
Natural gas futures may be mired in a narrow range, but prices continue to edge upward. On Tuesday, the prompt month got a boost from falling production levels in the Permian Basin, a development that brought total output below the 100 Bcf/d level — a rare occurrence late in the summer of 2023.
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Here's the 7 day temps from last week for tomorrows 9:30am weekly storage report.
Enough CDDs to reduce the injection a bit from burning ng to generate electricity for air conditioning in the very warm/hot places.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
Previous technical/chart post:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98739/#98785
NG still trying to hold the weakening uptrend but the slope is collapsing and a failure to make new highs will harm the bull case. Potential top just above $3 in that case.
https://tradingeconomics.com/tsla:us
The Negative market reaction says that this was BEARISH!
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
for week ending September 8, 2023 | Released: September 14, 2023 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: September 21, 2023
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (09/08/22) | 5-year average (2018-22) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 09/08/23 | 09/01/23 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 775 | 766 | 9 | 9 | 657 | 18.0 | 725 | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 904 | 877 | 27 | 27 | 804 | 12.4 | 851 | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 225 | 218 | 7 | 7 | 162 | 38.9 | 185 | 21.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 260 | 252 | 8 | 8 | 235 | 10.6 | 262 | -0.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,041 | 1,035 | 6 | 6 | 902 | 15.4 | 978 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 241 | 241 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 29.6 | 225 | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 801 | 795 | 6 | 6 | 715 | 12.0 | 753 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,205 | 3,148 | 57 | 57 | 2,760 | 16.1 | 3,002 | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,205 Bcf as of Friday, September 8, 2023, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 57 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 445 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 203 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,002 Bcf. At 3,205 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
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Temps for this Thursday's 9:30am release from the EIA for natural gas storage.
Warm vs average West, South and East. Cool in the middle. I don't have a guess. Anybody else/Larry?
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
0z European Ensembles dropped 6 CDDs overnight from the previous 12z run Tuesday. A lot for September!
Purple line on the right for the graph below. Still higher CDDs than average which is the dashed green line that's plunging fast and means that average CDDs into early October don't matter.
In fact, HDDs that are rapidly increasing on the left (dashed green line) will pass up CDDS seasonally during the 2nd week of October!
A warm forecast like this after that happens, is more bearish than bullish.
The scales for the 2 graphs below are not the same.
EIA was a bit bearish based on the modest, initial spike lower.
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
for week ending September 15, 2023 | Released: September 21, 2023 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: September 28, 2023
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (09/15/22) | 5-year average (2018-22) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 09/15/23 | 09/08/23 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 793 | 775 | 18 | 18 | 686 | 15.6 | 751 | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 931 | 904 | 27 | 27 | 839 | 11.0 | 883 | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 228 | 225 | 3 | 3 | 167 | 36.5 | 189 | 20.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 263 | 260 | 3 | 3 | 237 | 11.0 | 265 | -0.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,053 | 1,041 | 12 | 12 | 931 | 13.1 | 998 | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 242 | 241 | 1 | 1 | 197 | 22.8 | 231 | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 811 | 801 | 10 | 10 | 733 | 10.6 | 767 | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,269 | 3,205 | 64 | 64 | 2,859 | 14.3 | 3,086 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,269 Bcf as of Friday, September 15, 2023, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 64 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 410 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 183 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,086 Bcf. At 3,269 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
The overnight 0z EE cooled again by -7 CDDs vs the previous 12z run. See the purple line on the right side of the graph.
Using the green dashed lines (SEASONAL AVERAGES), HDDs on the left, pass up CDDs on the right in early October. However, this year CDDs will be much greater than HDDs well into October because of the widespread above average temperature regime.
