Yes, warmer waters SHOULD result in more intense hurricanes and for sure, individual hurricanes can strengthen faster when all things are held constant and you have an ocean temperature 1 deg. C warmer, as we do now.
But all things ARE NOT held constant with climate change. There are other factors causing LESS hurricanes and offsetting the slightly warmer waters with intensities.
One of them is a decreasing meridional temperature gradient because of warming the higher latitudes(coldest places) the most and lower latitudes the least which results in the atmosphere having less need to redistribute/balance planetary heat using hurricanes.
This may be contributing to the less favorable tropospheric conditions for hurricanes the last century noted in the study at the bottom of this post.
By Rachel Ramirez, CNN
Published 2:38 PM EDT, Fri September 8, 2023
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/weather/category-5-hurricane-frequency-climate/index.html
Lee’s winds increased 85 mph in 24 hours, the third-fastest a storm has rapidly intensified on record in the Atlantic Ocean, according to NOAA research meteorologist John Kaplan.
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They continue to cherry pick and use weather caused mostly by natural variation(as the marine heat waves this year are) as examples for the climate crisis. In every case, they intentionally fail to show the authentic data because the data doesn't support their alarmist language.
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Here's a story on CNN, just a year ago FROM THE SAME REPORTER!
Published 11:01 AM EDT, Mon June 27, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/27/weather/tropical-cyclone-frequency-21st-century-climate/index.html
Here's the study that they site:
TROPICAL CYCLONES
Global decline in frequency
Quantifying historical trends in tropical cyclone activity has proved difficult, but a new reconstruction reveals a clear global decline over the past century, driven by an increasingly cyclone-hostile environment in the troposphere.
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Why did this same reporter, yesterday completely ignore her own story from a year ago?
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98571/#98631
By metmike - Aug. 29, 2023, 7:42 p.m.
The MSM is going more insane with time about any extreme weather event, blaming a 1 deg. C warming for EVERYTHING!
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/29/hurricane-idalia-unique-florida-threat
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All the reporters go to every hot place and every severe storm and report it around the clock as being caused by the climate crisis as if natural variation doesn't exist anymore and ignore the hottest decade ever in the US, the 1930's.
And ignore the fact that hurricanes, including MAJOR hurricanes and tropical storms have NOT increased during climate change.
You would be shocked to know that because I just looked at 25 articles today that said the complete opposite. They are WRONG and they don't show the data.......only using scary, sensationalized WORDS. See the actual data below.
Note that this data started in the satellite era.
Before then, we had tropical storms that went undetected and storms that strengthened to hurricanes that we didn't know about.
But when comparing landfalling hurricanes, back before the satellite era, its the same story. NO INCREASE.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97993/#97994
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97993/#97995
https://climatlas.com/tropical/
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https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/7/bams-d-17-0184.1.xml
Is the warmer water in the GOM helping to make Idalia stronger?
Absolutely, yes but other factors related to climate change are having the OPPOSITE impact on OVERALL hurricanes(the meridional temp gradient is weaker-so less need for the planet to try to redistribute heat/exhaust heat in the lower latitudes when the higher latitudes are experiencing the most (beneficial) warming because of climate change). Climate change results in a more equal distribution/balance of the heat on the planet to offset the impact of the greatly unequal heating from the sun.
The only time we see graphs with authentic data on hurricanes like this above are from sources that immediately get called "deniers" for doing it.
The data is not manipulated. The graphs above are all honest graphs from an a very credible tropical exper. They all come from real, measured empirical data that represents what really happened to the best of modern science's ability to measure it.
The graph/pictures are worth a thousands words and in this case, the words contradicting this authentic data are coming from forked key boards (-:
Sadly, the forked keyboards have hijacked climate science for multiple agendas.
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BTW, this latest storm of the century killed 1 person in the state of Florida.
As joj smartly stated in another thread this morning, repeating something over and over is needed in today's world to get it to sink into people’s heads (sadly, that applies to manufactured realities).
So I'll repeat this for the 20th time here because it represents authentic science/meteorology/climate and contradicts all the cherry picking, junk science, false narratives repeated over and over about the fake climate crisis during this climate optimum for most life on this greening planet.
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With regards to climate change. It's funny that every single extreme weather event is looked at with regards to that in today's world. It's like natural weather that controls almost all of our weather has taken a back seat in most peoples minds.
Of course we're happy to objectively discuss it with respect to that!
We know that the new, slightly warmer atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture than the old atmosphere could.
We are dealing with the same natural weather systems, same physical laws and meteorology.........but super imposing 1 deg. C of warming and 7% more moisture on the old atmosphere.
It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
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regardless of whether that computes in your head, the measured empirical data on hurricanes and graphics depicting that comprehensive evidence OF THE REAL WORLD, always trumps theories and global climate models based on those theories.
Hijacked Climate science has it completely backwards here in sticking with busted models used as a tool for enriching entities that are positioned to benefit from a climate crisis……at the expense of ignoring compelling, authentic data/science!
The alarmist, anti scientific method BS continues to get worse.
Cherry pick every extreme, exaggerate it's significance and pretend that it defines the climate crisis...........and repeat it over and over and over until people accept the manufactured reality as the real world reality.
Real world: The temperature of the oceans has increased 1 deg C, which is 1.5 deg. F, with more warming in the coldest places(where ice is) and less warming in the warmest places(where hurricanes are).
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We should note that objective science about CO2 and the warming would tell us more than just how it impacts some hurricanes and some heat waves.
As in the overwhelming authentic science proving that we are in a climate optimum for life on a massively greening planet and the CO2(building block for life) is still only half the optimal level.
And that global temps were this warm 1,000 years ago(not warmest in 125,000 years), when the Vikings were living on Greenland in areas covered by ice recently because of the Little Ice age.........which dealt are harsh blow to much of life until the benefits of increasing CO2 kicked in.
Global cooling and temperatures colder than where they are now are what cause the most harsh weather and kills the most life.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98263/#98264
The current climate optimum is SAVING many lives!
Yes, even despite some hurricanes being a bit stronger and some heat waves +2 deg. F hotter and more rain and oceans rising at 1 inch/decade.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92155/
