Will The Dead Cat Bounce Come
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Started by bcb - Sept. 26, 2023, 8:40 p.m.

The seasonal is upon us. Could Friday's Grain stock number put the low in? Do we wait for Monday or Tuesday? Demand is still the problem. Beans could still have a story and be the leader down the road with wheat. Corn just a tag a long imho.

By metmike - Sept. 27, 2023, 12:59 a.m.
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Great questions bcb!

By joj - Sept. 27, 2023, 6 a.m.
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I used to trade grains when I was cutting my teeth back in the 1980s.  I saw the post and pulled up a bean chart.  It might be that it is getting dragged down by the rise in interest rates.  Might it be the case that a hawkish US Fed makes the dollar strong and foreign demand softer?  Just a thought...

By metmike - Sept. 27, 2023, 9:37 a.m.
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Your thoughts are worth a great deal here, joj!

The weather forecast has very little bearing here, so mine are not of great value, like they might be during the main growing season. 

However, the market could soon be starting to react to anticipated growing conditions in South America.

However, the last 90 days have not featured any extreme precip anomalies for the key grain producing areas of Brazil-average-but its been the dry season  and Argentina-on the wet side-so the drought from last years growing season is wiped out. 

If there was a southern hemisphere, growing season coming up spin to it, this is BEARISH. 

By metmike - Sept. 27, 2023, 9:50 a.m.
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Look what the historical drought in Argentina last growing season did to Corn and Bean yields!

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Not new information, but I looked back on this yesterday and it's still hard to grasp just how hard the 2023 growing season was for #soybeans in #Argentina. Yields nearly 50% below trend due to extreme drought. That's either unprecedented or hasn't happened in many decades.



Here's #corn - not as big a dive below trend but the same idea - worst relative crop in decades. I computed these trends myself so the exact deviation may vary among analysts, but that's fine. As long as we capture the relative picture.


karen Braun@kannbwx

#Argentina's #wheat yields in 2023 were also the worst in many decades. USDA forecasts already imply about 10% below trend for 2024, likely because it is still dry. #ElNino doesn't always produce strong Argy wheat harvests. 2016 crop was very "meh" despite huge El Nino.